Former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 election have skyrocketed in the last month, while Vice President Kamala Harris is struggling to find “second gear,” according to pollster Nate Silver.
The FiveThirtyEight founder and data analyst said on Wednesday that his presidential election model gives Trump a 58.2% chance of winning the Electoral College in November's election, compared with Harris' 41.6% chance.
“Trump's chances of victory are now their highest since July 30th,” Silver wrote. Latest election predictions“And the chances that a split in the electoral and popular vote will go against Harris have risen to nearly 18 percent.”
Silver model They project that Ms Harris has a 58.9% chance of winning the national popular vote (which does not affect the outcome of the election), but that Mr Trump would receive 274 electoral votes, surpassing the Vice President's estimated 263 electoral votes.
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
“After Biden dropped out, there was a lot of enthusiasm for Harris, but that may have been what was going to happen anyway,” Silver said. Listed in X.
Pollsters also argued that Ms Harris may have made mistakes by choosing Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate rather than Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shaprio, a battleground state, and by keeping much of President Biden's campaign team intact.
“I think the convention speech was good, but ignoring Shapiro is starting to look bad and they still haven't found second gear after the 'Hot Brat Summer',” he continued.
“I'd be a little more convinced of Harris' bullish take if she hadn't rehired so many of Biden's aides,” Silver said in a separate tweet.
Overall, Silver's model still sees the race as a “close race” between the two candidates.
His analysis comes in the wake of an ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Labor Day that showed Harris failed to get the boost she hoped for after last month's Democratic National Convention, leaving her 2024 race essentially unchanged.
Trump and Harris are also virtually tied in two of the battleground states that could decide the election, with a CNN/SSRS poll released Wednesday showing Trump and Harris each with 47% support in Pennsylvania and the vice president leading the former president in Georgia, 48% to 47%.
