Former President Donald Trump's approval rating among Muslim-American voters has improved significantly since four years ago, according to a new poll.
According to a study by the Rainey Center, a non-profit, “non-partisan” public policy research institute, if the 2024 election were held today, the 78-year-old Trump would receive the support of 30% of Muslim voters, compared with the 23% he received for Joe Biden four years ago.
Vice President Kamala Harris would win 62% of the Muslim vote, according to the survey, which was conducted among a sample of 49% registered Democrats, 28% registered independents and 18% registered Republicans.
Three-fifths (60%) of those surveyed said they supported Biden in 2020.
In a hypothetical six-way race, Harris' support had declined compared to Biden's four years ago, with 56% of Muslims voting for her, 25% for Trump, 3% for Green Party candidate Jill Stein and 1% for independent candidate Cornel West.
Before Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, incumbent Biden was losing to Trump among Middle Eastern, North African and Muslim voters, according to a May Siena College/New York Times poll.
A separate survey of Muslims released last week by the Council on American-Islamic Relations found Ms Harris and Ms Stein tied at 29% for support, but 11% backed Mr Trump, 4% backed Mr West and 1% backed Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. won 5% of the Muslim vote but stopped campaigning on the first day of the Rainey poll and endorsed Trump.
Stein, a former Democrat, has filed lawsuits to block her from running in key battleground states in an effort to support President Trump, but she has already secured her candidacy in six of the seven key battleground states – Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
West is currently only running in Wisconsin and North Carolina.
Muslim voters surveyed were most concerned about the economy and crime as the biggest election issues.
Majorities also were “extremely” or “very” concerned about “the increase in transgender medical care for minors” (51%), “the rise of far-right MAGA ideology” (51%), “the erosion of parental rights in American public education” (53%), and “the teaching of sexually explicit material to children in public schools” (61%).
Yet on every issue polled, majorities or majority said Democrats were closer to their views than Republicans.
This includes opinions on foreign policy, with 65% saying they were “extremely” or “very” concerned about a war between Israel and Hamas.
More than four in five (82%) say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote on November 5, while 15% are unsure and 3% say they “probably” will not go to the polls.
Half of the respondents (50%) identified themselves as cultural Muslims rather than strict Muslims, and the majority (44%) described their political views as moderate.
The Rainey Center poll was conducted Aug. 23-29 via a web panel among 600 respondents who self-identify as Muslim, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
