A new poll shows the Republican-leaning state could be closer than expected in November, with former President Trump holding a slim 2-point lead over Vice President Harris in Florida.
The poll showed Trump leading in Florida with 49% support and Harris with 47%. Morning Consult Poll The poll, released Monday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Before the latest Morning Consult poll was released, The Hill/Decision Desk average had Trump leading Harris by 3.3 percentage points. A Hill/Emerson College poll released last week had Trump leading Harris by 5 points in Florida, within the poll's margin of error.
In the state's Senate race, incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (Republican) is leading former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (Democrat), with Scott leading by five points, while the Hill/Decision Desk average has Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell by three points.
The latest polling data highlights the tight race in Florida, a state that has held strong for Republicans in recent election cycles. Former President Barack Obama was the last Democratic candidate to win the state by less than one percentage point, in 2012. Trump then won the state by just over a point in 2016 and by more than three points in 2020.
Republicans continued to strengthen their hold in the state in the 2022 midterm elections, winning by a large margin statewide, but Republican performance outside the state was largely disappointing.
But the Harris campaign has made a number of investments recently, many of them related to abortion, as the state prepares to vote on Amendment 4, which would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. Earlier this month, the Harris campaign kicked off a “Reproductive Rights for All” bus tour in Trump's hometown of Palm Beach.
A poll released last week by The Hill and Emerson College found that 55% of Florida voters said they support Amendment 4, while 26% said they plan to vote against it. The measure would need the support of 60% of Florida voters to pass.
The Morning Consult poll was conducted among 3,076 Florida voters from Aug. 30 to Sept. 8, 2024, with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
Updated at 8:09 p.m.
