Electricity demand has surged after more than a decade of slow growth, with growth of just 1%. New technologies such as artificial intelligence have been a major driver of this growth, with data centers consuming more electricity than ever before. 8% of domestic electricity by 2030Domestic semiconductor production is also contributing to this trend, and power companies Nearly doubled Demand is predicted to increase by 2028.
This surge is good news: Advances in artificial intelligence and other technologies will increase productivity, spur economic growth, and position the United States to win the technology race against its rivals. But it presents one big challenge: We need enough reliable electricity to meet this growing demand.
Reliable sources of power should not be shut down until equally reliable alternatives have been built.
The North American Electric Reliability Council predicts that winter electricity demand will 91,000 megawatts Over the next decade, we will produce more electricity than the entire existing supply of California. In the next two years alone, we will have to build the equivalent of 28 nuclear reactors to meet that demand. Meanwhile, the Environmental Protection Agency is pushing ahead with regulations that will force the closure of coal-fired power plants, reducing our electricity supply at a time when we need more.
This approach represents a major setback at a critical time for our country. Existing EPA regulations, expensive tax breaks, and federal subsidies have already led 31 states to plan to retire more than 130 coal-fired power plants over the next five years at a time when electricity demand is set to soar. In response, utilities in 14 states have reversed plans to retire coal-fired power plants to meet growing electricity demand.
Even if we assume that replacement wind farms and solar panels could be built fast enough to replace all coal-fired power plants (which is impossible), new transmission lines would need to be built to connect them to the grid, which could take years, if not decades, to build. The resulting power supply would still be dependent on sun and wind, which cannot produce electricity 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Battery storage is also not a solution, since batteries can only provide power for a few hours.
Ignoring the practical limits of renewable energy and the infrastructure required for it could lead to frequent power outages, to the detriment of consumers. Hundreds of millions of dollarsIt would also undermine vital industries and energy security. As Europe has learned, Russia's invasion of Ukraineis an important source of geopolitical strength.
Meanwhile, another rival, China, consumes half of the world's coal and continues to build coal-fired power plants to advance advanced technology and expand its military influence. China's new coal-fired power plants alone will produce more electricity than the combined total of existing U.S. coal plants. Closing U.S. coal plants would give its rivals a strategic advantage.
As demand for electricity soars, the United States will still be years away from replacing reliable sources of power without risking blackouts, stunting economic growth, or endangering national security. There are many proposals to meet this challenge, some good, but many unrealistic.
I have two simple suggestions:
First, we need to roll back or eliminate EPA regulations that threaten our ability to meet future electricity demand. This can be accomplished through the courts, a new president, or Congress. The U.S. Supreme Court recently blocked implementation of the EPA’s Good Neighbor Plan, which could have forced the retirement of coal-fired power plants.
The court's injunction indicates that it believes the rule is likely to ultimately be overturned. More recently, 27 states asked the Supreme Court to block the EPA's Clean Power Plan 2.0, which would likely force the early retirement of the entire U.S. coal-fired power plant.
Second, reliable sources of power should not be shut down until equally reliable alternatives have been built.
Both ideas require political will and a sense of urgency. If we wait until the lights go out, it will be too late.
