Hello, students. Welcome to our new course, Chiefs Fantasy Variable Postulate Analysis 101. Today's lesson starts with a little history.
The Chiefs became a powerhouse in the NFL in 2018. They had a solid run game behind rookie Kareem Hunt, but their real strength was in the passing game – receiver Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce, and the Unicorns. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes showed his strength.
There was a revolving door of running backs in the years that followed, but the holy fantasy trinity of Hill, Kelce, and Mahomes was always there to provide fits for opponents and give fantasy teams a respectable prize.
…until Hill was traded after the 2021 season. Losing him was expected to result in offensive decline in 2022, but does anyone know what happened in its place? Anyone? … Anyone?
That's correct. The Chiefs won the Super Bowl. Kelce was still dominant and Mahomes was still the QB king, but instead of peppering his star WR with targets, he only fed a fraction of that amount to multiple Holham receivers.
Fast forward to today: The Chiefs appear to be without their top receiver, Lachie Rice, for the season due to a knee injury sustained on Sunday. Everything will be fine, right? After all, if they're still okay with losing Tyreke, losing Rice should be a solvable problem, right?
Does anyone know why the same logic doesn't apply? Anyone? … Anyone? …Yes, there are some differences.
The last time this happened, the Chiefs had a running game with then-rookie Isaiah Pacheco. Pacheco first gained attention late in the 2022 season. However, the veteran running back is now likely to be sidelined until at least November after fibula surgery.
The options behind him are uninspiring, and the workload between Hunt, Samaje Perine and rookie Carson Steele is uncertain. The backfield is expected to be a mess and unreliable until Pacheco returns.
Secondly, Kelce was the alpha of the 2022 tight end breed. Now he is just one of the group, not even at the head of the group.
He has already stepped into uncharted territory and is still performing this well well into his 30s, and is currently 34 years old. Expect an increase in targets and his production should pick up slightly, but don't set your hopes on the future. Back to the salad days. He will be better than he has been so far this season, but still nowhere near peak Kelce.
Does anyone remember what happened to the receivers after Hill was dealt? Yes, the Chiefs spread the ball out to multiple home receivers. And what best predicts future behavior? Anyone? … Anyone? …Yes, it is an act of the past. Therefore, it is expected that the Chiefs will spread out targets among multiple Haum receivers this time as well.
Is Xavier Worthy a freak? Probably from a skill perspective, but as far as our production hypothesis goes, he's expected to remain boom-bust, relying more on big plays than quantity. And manager Andy Reid emphasized that theorem Monday, saying his plan is to spread the ball around.
There is one additional possible credit. That is if the Chiefs trade for a receiver. However, we will discuss this in a later class.
To summarize the expected duality, a smaller run game makes it easier for the defense to cover fewer receiving options, and fewer receivers makes it easier to defend against the run. This creates a self-perpetuating cycle that cascades throughout the attack, creating an uncomfortably high degree of uncertainty.
So when you get to the exam question of who are the possible solutions to the Chiefs' WR problem, if someone says Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, or Skye Moore, you fail the course.
I certainly don't want that. Do you all agree? Anyone? … Anyone?
everything is ok
Rico Doodle RB, Cowboys
He had twice as many touches as Ezekiel Elliott in Week 4, but still needed a TD to realize any fantasy interest. But if he can consistently rack up that kind of volume, he becomes a weekly flex option.
Chase Brown RB, Bengals
For the first time this season, they had a 50 percent share of Sunday's rush workload. Zack Moss isn't going away, but at least Brown is moving up to flex status.
Dontavion Wicks WR, Packers
He's the Packers' best big-play threat. And in Week 4, they overwhelmed the target with 13. With a cap that includes that kind of amount, he will receive consideration for the starter every week.
Tre Tucker WR, Raiders
He has made huge strides over the past two weeks, especially with Davante Adams sidelined. The Raiders are often on the back foot, so Tucker should continue to get volume while Adams is out.
What's wrong, friend?
Breece Hall RB, Jets
For now, I'll take Week 4's mismanagement as an anomaly. But Braylon Allen and Hall's increasing use of pedestrian productions are ringing alarm bells. I'm not panicking yet, just aware.
Zamir White RB, Raiders
Despite having double-digit carries in three of four games, White has yet to reach double-digit points in PPR this season. And Alexander Mattison is outperforming him at goal line work. White is unplayable.
Jordan Addison WR, Vikings
We made changes based on our expectations for the Vikings' offense. But with Addison's splashy return on Sunday, we think his trade value could increase. See if he can get you a starter-level player each week.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
Mark Andrews TE, Ravens
He eats fantasy donuts in quick succession. To make matters worse, he only had two total targets through two games. Even a shallow position like tight end can be better than zero every week. It's time to pull the Andrews eject lever.
