President Biden and Vice President Harris may find themselves in an increasingly difficult position the longer the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) attacks on the East and Gulf coasts drag on.
Mr. Biden could bring workers back to the docks by invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, but that would put Mr. Harris on the progressive ticket in the weeks before an election in which he needs high turnout from the Democratic base. This will incur the ire of workers.
But if the strike begins to hurt the economy in the coming weeks, it risks undoing some of the progress Ms. Harris has made in polling on perhaps the most important issue in the election.
Shipping and logistics experts told The Hill that it is difficult to know when exactly prices in the economy will start rising as a result of the strike.
“The first thing to be affected is [are] “Perishables, flowers, food, medicine, etc. are transported in refrigerated containers, and there is a very narrow range within which they are acceptable,” said Kent Godin, director of the university's Global Logistics and Transportation Program. says Mr. of Charleston, he told The Hill.
The Freitos Baltic index is down around $4,500, with just 1% volatility, down from $5,500 in August to that level.
As for consumer goods prices, Guldan believes that “so many big retailers… have been anticipating this and started stocking up months in advance, so the impact on prices could last for some time.” said.
As the strike continues and price pressure moves further upstream toward the production end of the pipeline, the political fallout for Biden and Harris is likely to become even more severe.
Harris is bridging the gap where former President Trump has long held the upper hand on economic issues that resonate with Americans, especially after the post-pandemic inflation.
A poll conducted by Marist College on which candidate is better for the economy among American adults found that Harris had a 3 percentage point lead over Trump. The same poll in June showed Biden trailing Trump by 9 points. In a recent Fox News poll, Harris was 10 points closer to Trump than Biden.
Guldan said the overall economic recovery from the strike, including the impact on prices and the normalization of supply chains, will take about five times longer than the duration of the strike itself.
Sherman Robinson, a fellow emeritus at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, also told The Hill that it's “hard to say” exactly when a strike will lead to higher container costs.
On the negotiation front, Biden said Thursday that some progress is being made.
“I think we're making progress on this,” he told reporters, adding that “we'll see very soon” how much progress is being made.
Biden and Harris are calling on the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) to work together on behalf of longshoremen.
“I urge USMX, representing a group of foreign airlines, to come to the table to ensure that International Longshoremen's Association workers are adequately compensated for their valuable contributions,” Biden said. “We asked them to come up with a fair offer.” in a statement Tuesday.
Harris said earlier this week that longshore workers “deserve a significant share of these record profits,” The Hill reported.
AFL-CIO Transportation and Trade Bureau Director Greg Regan, who said he was authorized to speak on behalf of the ILA, told The Hill that the two sides have exchanged informal offers.
“They probably haven't had formal sit-down negotiations. That doesn't mean they haven't exchanged offers, as has been reported. [on Tuesday] Even if it was the day before the strike…that meant both sides were close. They’re still talking,” Regan said Wednesday.
If the two sides cannot reach an agreement, Biden will have to resort to a powerful labor law called the Taft-Hartley Act, which can declare a national economic emergency.
Doing so would begin the legal process to obtain an injunction ordering the workers to return to work while negotiations continue. This could reduce workers' leverage in negotiations, and the 80-day “cooling-off period” is likely to have an impact on the economy.
Arthur Wheaton, director of labor studies at Cornell University, told The Hill earlier this week that because the current ILA strike is an economic strike (meaning a strike over compensation, not unsafe working conditions), the U.S. He said that labor law allows for replacement if workers do not comply. However, he warned that it could have a negative impact on the industry.
Negotiations between ILA and USMX could be complicated by the nature of the USMX consortium, which several experts described in terms that run counter to traditional market dynamics.
Charleston's Guldan said the current shipping partnership is a quagmire.
“Things have gotten a bit confusing as these individual companies have entered into these collaborations ('merger' is the wrong word). Basically they are rivals. What's happening is that individual lines now share a lot of space and a lot of lines that they didn't use before. ”
USMX itself recognizes that various aspects of its business are intertwined with labor contractual implications.
“Negotiations are necessary to reach an agreement, and we are committed to a way to get back to the table to further discuss these important elements, many of which are intertwined.We will return to negotiations. “While we cannot agree on the preconditions for this, we remain committed to negotiating in good faith to address the ILA's demands and the USMX's concerns,” the alliance said in a statement Wednesday.
President Trump also has a friendly message for union members.
“American workers should be able to negotiate for better wages, especially since the shipping lines, including the largest consortium, One, are mostly foreign-flagged vessels,” he said in a statement Tuesday. Ta.
Automation is a major concern for longshore workers, with some describing their complete reliance on automation as “naive.” Robinson, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, compared some Chinese ports to U.S. ports and told The Hill there is a legitimate need to “increase efficiency” at U.S. ports.
