Opinion polls show former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia, but a surge in new voter registrations and newly naturalized citizens could tilt the result in favor of the Democratic candidate. be.
At least 120,000 new voters registered in the Peach State between July 21 (when President Biden withdrew from the 2024 race) and September 8, according to released data. Thursday Voter Analytics Company L2 Data.
The majority of new registrants (56%) are under the age of 34, and just over half (53%) are voters of color, both of whom have healthy support for Harris over Trump.
Georgia, which favored Biden over Trump by less than 12,000 votes in 2020, also has a surprisingly high number of immigrants expected to become eligible for citizenship in 2024.
The American Immigration Council, a national nonprofit organization, found earlier this year that: There are approximately 158,000 noncitizens in Georgia. They will be eligible for naturalization in 2024 and will be more motivated to vote in November.
“The naturalization process is kind of a difficult process that requires a lot of patience,” said Steve Hubbard, senior data scientist at AIC. told WABE. In February.
“There's a lot of paperwork, interviews that have to be completed, citizenship tests. You can tell that they're often very proud of their work and want to be a part of the United States and its system of governance.” ” he added.
Regarding the expected impact of the influx of new citizens on the 2024 election race, Hubbard said, “If you're in a state where the election is very close between two presidential candidates, it could easily tip over.'' “There is,” he said.
Georgia's naturalization rate is 78.7%, which is higher than the national average, Hubbard said.
The AIC does not analyze whether immigrants tend to vote for one party over the other.
Latest RealClearPolitics average Polls show Trump leading Harris by 1.5 percentage points in Georgia.
The battleground states have 16 electoral votes scheduled for November.
Harris, 59, and Trump, 78, visited the state earlier this week to survey the damage caused by Hurricane Helen and meet with first responders and local officials.
