Throughout this election, the assumption has been that there are seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Campaigns, political parties, super PACs and others poured hundreds of millions of dollars into these battleground states, and in return they received massive polling numbers that suggested the race there was too close to call.
But did they ignore the possibility of other battlegrounds contesting the 88 electoral votes?
Eli McCann-Dawson, one of poll guru Nate Silver's lieutenants, claim That's potentially true: “Their model considers Florida to be the seventh most likely tipping point state. Like Nevada, electoral votes are much more equal, but can be won.” The number of electors is small.”
In fact, Florida has 30 electors, five times as many as Nevada and more than any single state that conventional wisdom would consider a battleground state.
And after the pandemic brought about a shift in political parties and an influx of coronavirus refugees, both Republicans and Democrats have been in the sunshine, even though Republicans have more than 1 million more active registered voters than Democrats. There are structural signs that the state recognizes that the battle for states could become a dogfight.
First, on Friday, former President Barack Obama, who carried the state in 2008 and 2012, said: approved Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel Powell in the race against former governor Sen. Rick Scott.
The average RealClearPolitics poll shows the incumbent's approval rating is 4.3 points.
Obama's support for Kamala Harris, whose campaign is faltering toward its final stages, is due to a historic reluctance to engage in one of the few states where the 2022 “red wave” manifested as advertised. It's a sign that the national Democratic Party may end up playing in Florida after all.
Of course, it's still an open question whether Harris and Tim Walz will campaign in the state, given that the Senate race is not the main event and has so far only sent surrogates. –Especially considering Trump ranks 6th in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
McCone Dawson's analysis recognizes the nature of the state's long-term outlook, noting that Trump has already won it twice and it is “no longer the typical swing state it once was.” But when you ask the seemingly rhetorical question of whether Florida is “a lost cause for Harris that isn't worth investing your limited campaign funds in,” even though the model gives Harris the answer: “It's not that simple,” he says. The probability of winning is 21%.
First, the silver model considers Harris vs. Trump a 3.3-point contest, which would be roughly equivalent to the Biden vs. Trump result in 2020. The analysis also pointed to some individual polls, although they were not of “particularly high quality.” Close the race to a point or two.
Political experts are divided on partisan lines about how close Florida actually is.
Democrats did not respond to questions, but Republican Chairman Evan Power fired In a recent interview, he expressed his belief that the state is a “fool's gold” battleground, and he expanded on that point to the Post.
“Florida is a safe R-state,” he said, insisting the poll results are safe. florida chamber of commerce and Related industries in FloridaThe poll favoring the Republican candidate is “much more reliable than some polls that have consistently underestimated Mr. Trump and Mr. Scott.”
“The fact is, we have more registered Republicans, and electing them will help us win Florida no matter what the polls are,” Power added.
People familiar with the Mucarsel-Powell campaign's thinking say voters, particularly Latino voters, could split the ticket between Trump and the Democratic Senate candidate.
They feel Scott doesn't take them seriously. This is evidenced by the fact that there were fewer ads this cycle than for the 2018 Bill Nelson fight. And they believe this race is as close as the closest poll, which they believe is more reflective of the turnout model for the 2020 presidential cycle than the 2022 wave election. There is.
Scott's campaign took a different stance, insisting that the race was not that close and that he had heard this opinion from the opposition before.
“Every election the Florida Democratic Party says Rick Scott is in trouble, and every election the Democratic Party loses. But the National Democratic Party is free to waste money if it wants to. Investments late in the cycle. Given the shortfall, we don't seem to have much confidence in Debbie Mucarsel-Powell's struggling campaign. We have taken this race seriously from the beginning.” told the Post.
Despite the partisan framework, the reality is this. The national movement may want to ignore Florida and continue pouring money into chasing a dwindling number of undecided voters in battleground states.
But it can be dangerous for them.
Democrats will need to compete again to show they can do it.
And if Republicans somehow lose a Senate seat or the state's 30 electoral votes, it will be a lesson in how to squander political advantages that once seemed unassailable.
