PPolitics is difficult because it always requires choosing between conflicting objectives. As Keir Starmer discovers, the need to prioritize means you can't please everyone all the time.
Labor wants faster growth, stronger public finances, decarbonisation, a more even distribution of prosperity across regions, tighter immigration controls and a reset of the UK's relationship with the EU. It's nearly impossible to do all of these at the same time.
An example of the dilemma created by these conflicting policy objectives was made clear last week when the Prime Minister traveled to Brussels to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Mr Starmer stressed that he wanted a more constructive approach, “turning the page” and doing business more “respectfully”, but all this is easier said than done. Any sensible politician would want relations between the UK and the EU to be as friendly as possible. There were also many warm words from Ms. Von der Leyen.
Whether the kind words actually mean much is another matter entirely. Mr Starmer has made it clear that there are red lines that must not be crossed. He has no intention of returning Britain to the single market or customs union, and is resisting EU pressure for a youth mobility deal.
Mr Starmer's wariness is understandable. At a time when public concern about immigration is so high, he is reluctant to make concessions on movement. Improving relations with the EU is one of the goals, but it is lower on the Prime Minister's list of priorities than curbing the number of people coming to the UK from overseas.
Restricting net immigration is a very serious political issue, especially for left-wing parties. But as a new academic paper shows, it will depend on whether the government follows through on its promise to share the benefits of faster growth equally across the UK's regions.
of studyThe paper, by Steve Fothergill and Tony Gore from the Center for Regional Economic and Social Research at Sheffield Hallam University, examines job creation in former coalfields in England and Wales between the two most recent censuses in 2011 and 2021. We are investigating. This period was chosen because it is simply census data that provides detailed information about what is happening in the local labor market. Scotland was excluded because its most recent census was conducted in 2022, but the authors believe their conclusions apply there as well.
The research shows that while 184,000 jobs were created over the decade in the areas of England and Wales hardest hit by deindustrialization, almost half (46%) of these jobs were created in England and Wales. This means that it was given to foreign-born workers. In Yorkshire, where the job growth was strongest, just 42% of new jobs were created by British-born workers.
The arguments in favor of free movement, that without immigrant workers, economic growth would have been slower and fewer jobs created, do not apply to the former coalfields, where much of the job creation was in warehousing. . The sector's growth in places such as Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire has been driven by ease of access to the UK's transport network and the availability of large areas of flat land that were once empty.
“If it weren't for the supply of migrant workers from outside the UK, warehousing growth would probably still be going on in these places, but employers would probably have to pay more, with better wages and conditions, and perhaps with higher degrees. We would have had to hire locally.''Rather than simply relying on cheap labor, we also need to increase automation,'' Fothergill and Gore conclude.
They believe that if there was less international migration, unemployment and economic inactivity would be lower, fewer coalfield residents would commute to work in search of work, and fewer people would seek job opportunities in other parts of the UK. He also said that the brain drain, where people leave the country, would have been reduced.
After newsletter promotion
There is evidence that some employers are making hiring outside the UK their first choice. Employers preferred non-British workers. Because they were young, healthy, and ready to accept low wages and poor conditions.
Between 2011 and 2021, considerable work was undertaken towards its revitalization. There was money for training, infrastructure, business support and the rehabilitation of old coal mines. Fothergill and Gore note that although they note real progress, the fact that 46% of job creation is accounted for by non-British-born workers means that returns on effort, energy and capital are low. – Of course – says.
Mr Starmer recognizes the devastating and lasting impact of deindustrialization on parts of the UK that half a century ago boasted thriving local economies. Just last week, he recalled how, as a lawyer, he tried to help miners' families as mines closed.
“I know firsthand what this country loses when we phase out coal in that way, because I've worked with families and communities who are going to lose jobs in really important industries.”
Mines will never come back, but if governments are serious about leveling up, they need to invest more in regeneration, do more to tackle skills shortages, crack down on unscrupulous employers and do more to help long-term workers. Yes, Fothergill and Gore say. – The disease is back in the labor market.
They also argue that research evidence supports Mr Starmer's argument that there should be no return to free movement or tougher immigration controls. While that is not a widely welcomed conclusion, it is true that restoration efforts in former coalfields have not resulted in sufficient job gains for the people who were supposed to benefit from them.
