Former President Trump's tax and spending plan could double the national debt compared to Vice President Harris' plan, reaching more than $7 trillion over the next decade, according to new estimates.
rough Analysis published by The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimated on Monday that the plans proposed by both candidates could add trillions of dollars to the national debt by 2035.
In assessing the potential fiscal impact of candidates' plans, CRFB developed central cost estimates for both sets of proposed policies, along with low-cost and high-cost estimates.
The budget watchdog reviewed central estimates and found that Harris' plan could increase the national debt by $3.5 trillion over the next 10 years, including about $500 billion in interest costs. did. By contrast, when measuring the impact of President Trump's plan, the group estimated it would increase the national debt by $7.5 trillion, including interest costs of about $1 trillion.
When looking at the group's low and high cost estimates, the numbers vary widely.
The group said Harris' plan “will not increase debt” based on low-cost estimates. But under this lofty estimate, her plan could increase projected debt by more than $8 trillion by fiscal year 2035, the group's study found.
Meanwhile, President Trump said, “Our low-cost estimate would increase debt by $1.45 trillion by fiscal year 2035, and our high-cost estimate would increase debt by $15.15 trillion.''
The Hill has reached out to both sides for comment.
The most expensive measure highlighted by the group is the estimated $5.3 trillion price tag on Mr. Trump's proposal to extend and amend parts of his signature 2017 tax law. Harris' proposal to extend parts of the plan would also cost nearly $3 trillion from 2026 to 2035.
The next big item for both candidates in the analysis is a proposal to cut personal taxes and expand tax cuts.
The analysis also looked at the costs of business tax cuts, immigration restrictions and border security measures, and some housing spending increases and tax cuts.
The committee said its analysis will be updated in the coming weeks as more policies are developed. However, it said the estimates would be subject to a “high degree of uncertainty” as questions swirled around key details of both candidates' economic proposals.
The group said it had “obtained sufficient detail to reliably estimate potential costs and savings based on candidate statements, campaign feedback, past budget proposals, and other sources. In many cases, we produced a wide range of estimates that reflected a variety of potential policy choices.”
The national debt currently stands at more than $35 trillion, and recent analysis predicts that the share of the economy will continue to increase in the coming years unless there are major changes.
“Our central estimates show that Vice President Harris' plan would increase debt to 133% of GDP in fiscal year 2035, an 8% increase in GDP,” the group said Monday. . “We estimate that under President Trump's plan, debt will reach 142% of GDP in 2035, an increase of 17% of GDP.”
