Vice President Harris' column shows that the final key state is leaning toward former President Trump, making the presidential election a hotly contested race.
But even though polls show a close race, some voters are reconsidering their long-held beliefs. This week's power rankings paint a picture of the new Harris-Trump coalition and show how both candidates can lead to victory.
Presidential predictions from FOX News Power Rankings.
Harris ties to unpopular Joe Biden in media blitz
Harris will make headlines tomorrow when she gives her first formal interview on Fox News.
The sit-in will be the vice president's largest and most high-profile opportunity in an uneven media tour.
Her appearances on talk shows went well, including an interview on “Call Her Daddy.” One of the most popular podcasts in the country has sparked the same kind of excitement among young women that President Trump has gotten from male influencers.
But Harris told ABC TV last Wednesday when asked if she had done anything different from President Biden during his administration. the view “There's nothing that comes to mind.”
Vice President Kamala Harris joins chief political anchor Bret Baier in first official Fox News interview
Harris appeared on ABC's The View.
The answer reminds voters that Harris is second-in-command to the presidency, and they argue that she has made their lives worse.
on NBC's latest national show. public opinion pollForty-five percent of voters say Biden's policies have harmed them or their families, but only a quarter say the policies have helped. That's 20 points of “net damage.”
Voters say Biden's policies have hurt more than helped.
Voters view President Trump's policies far more positively, with 44% saying they have helped and 31% saying they have hurt. In other words, 13 points of “net help”.
The same poll found that Trump's approval rating for his retrospective job was higher than any other poll during his presidency.
Harris' campaign knows that tying the vice president to Biden is not a winner. In her first interview as a Democratic candidate, Harris said it was time to “turn the page on the past 10 years.” Her bus tells voters she is offering “a new path forward.”
Trump's allies are said They plan to use the clip in a new ad, but not yet clear Whether it happens or not.
Voters regarding the qualifications of candidates.
The Democratic Party counters that elections are as much about individual qualifications as issues at stake. Harris speaks up in a recent New York Times/Siena article about caring about people like you (+8) and being honest and trustworthy (+11). public opinion poll. At the same time, Trump leads by 3 points in being a strong leader, and Harris leads by 8 points in being a fun leader.
In any case, Harris' response was not helpful to her campaign. He has weeks left to convince voters he will do otherwise.
Trump becomes stronger after vice presidential debate
Two weeks have passed since the only debate between Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, and two polls conducted after the showdown showed Vance winning the night. is suggested.
- Among registered voters, Trump holds a one-point lead over Harris, 47% to 46%, according to the NBC poll. Harris had previously led by six points.
- Among likely voters, ABC and Ipsos have Harris leading Trump by 2 percentage points, 50% to 48%. investigation. Previously, they were leading by 5 points.
These are meaningful changes in President Trump's direction, and the NBC poll also showed a slight improvement in Vance's favorability ratings.
Opinion polls show close race, new voters emerge
The polls above are two of many that show the race within the margin of error.
But underneath, there are signs that the Democratic-Republican coalition is shifting. And while Trump's gains with black and Latino voters have been talked about most, both coalitions are strong enough to win the election.
Mr. Trump has gained support among key voters.
FOX News Power Rankings: The biggest surprises will come after October
Trump has support in four major voting groups. The Times/Siena poll found that Democrats lost 20 points in black voters, 10 points in Hispanic votes and 3 points in youth votes, while up 6 points among male voters compared to 2020 voters. There is.
Black and Hispanic interests matter most to the Republican Party. These voters can make a big difference in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona.
The left column of the chart shows each group's share of the 2020 electorate, according to Fox News Voter Analysis. Percentages apply within each voter category (race, age, etc.).
For example, men make up 47% of voters, meaning 53% of voters are women.
That's where things get even more complicated for the Trump campaign.
While men moved six points toward the former president, women moved three points toward Harris. College-educated voters have shifted 10 points toward the vice president, giving him a 26-point advantage across the bloc. And Harris upset the senior.
Harris is gaining support among key voter groups.
These are some of the most trusted and majority voting groups in the United States. For example, only about a third of adults have a college degree, but this group makes up 40% of the electorate.
In other words, Trump's gains with some key groups are offset by Harris' gains with other voters.
Harris loses lead in predictions
Polls in battleground states also show the race in jeopardy.
Questionnaire from wall street journal and quinnipiac The candidates are within a few points of each other in three key Rust Belt states, consistent with more than a dozen other high-quality polls from last month.
Battlegrounds polls show races within the margin of error.
This prediction previously favored Harris in Michigan. Republican voting activity appears to be particularly chaotic in the state, which has favored Democrats since 2016.
But that's not enough when polls show a race this close. Both sides visit regularly, and Republicans have booked more spending here. Other Battleground states (excluding Pennsylvania, where advertising rates are high).
Fox News Power Rankings Presidential Map.
Michigan State goes from lean-D to a toss-up.
After this change, the Power Rankings predict that Ms. Harris will win at least 226 electoral votes and Mr. Trump at least 219. There are seven states in the middle worth 93 votes.
Presidential predictions from FOX News Power Rankings.
Harris has a six-vote advantage, including Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. This is important to the vice president. This is because if you combine victory there with the fierce battlegrounds of the Rust Belt, you will have a complete victory.
But with so many states flipping coins, this race looks like a dogfight for the electorate. Presidential election goes from Harris lead to toss-up.
Democrats hold an advantage in battleground states including Nevada
Republicans are still projected to maintain a majority in the Senate with 51 seats. An almost certain flip in West Virginia and an advantage in Montana cross the line.
FOX News power rankings: Senate Republicans take control
Fox News Power Rankings Senate Map.
Some polls still show Republican Senate candidates supporting Trump. Recent Arizona polls show the gap is 12 points wide, with Trump leading the presidential race by 5 points and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake by 7 points.
Some polls show higher levels of ticket splits.
History suggests that by election night, the gap will have narrowed. The direction of these ticket splitters is less clear. Either those who voted for President Trump return home and vote against the Republican candidate, or support for the former president is weaker than polls suggest.
As of now, public opinion polls are being displayed. nevadaDemocratic Sen. Jacky Rosen has a wide lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown, and the Senate race shifts from a toss-up to a Lean D.
3 weeks until election night
More than 4 million voters have now cast their ballots. Early voting is underway in all battleground states except Nevada.
Tomorrow, Fox News will be the only place to watch both presidential candidates. Watch the Harris Faulkner movie at 11 a.m. ET. town hall She met with President Trump in Georgia in front of an all-female audience. In a few hours, Bret Baier is scheduled to meet with Harris in Pennsylvania. The interview will air from 6 p.m. Special report.
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Fox News Media also proposed a second Harris-Trump debate to be moderated by Baier and Martha McCollum.
