When the FBI first released its 2022 “final” crime data in September 2023, it reported that the national violent crime rate had decreased by 2.1%. It quickly became, and continues to be, a talking point for Democrats against Donald Trump's claims that crime is surging.
However, the FBI quietly revised that number and released new data showing a 4.5% increase in violent crime in 2022. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults.
Even though polls show Americans are concerned about crime, the FBI and the media have difficulty understanding how crime rates have changed over the past few years.
The department, which was at the center of a partisan storm, made no mention of these revisions.
September 2024 Press Release.
RealClearInvestigations discovered the change through a mysterious reference on the FBI website.
state: “2022 violent crime rates have been updated to be included in CIUS for 2023.” But there is no mention that the number has increased. You can only see the changes by downloading the FBI's new crime data and comparing it to files released last year.
After the FBI released new crime data in September, the USA Today headline read
read: “Violent crimes such as murder and rape decreased for the third year in a row in 2023.”
More than three weeks have passed since the FBI released revised data. Researchers are concerned that the secretariat has not acknowledged or explained this significant change.
“We looked at data on the total number of violent crimes from 2004 to 2022,” Karl Moody, a professor at the College of William & Mary who specializes in crime research, told RealClearInvestigations. “From 2004 to 2015 there was no revision, and from 2016 to 2020 there was a small change of less than 1 percent. The major change in 2021 and 2022 is that unless otherwise stated, we do not rely on FBI data. It becomes difficult to do so.”
“It's the FBI's responsibility to explain what it did, but the FBI hasn't explained these major changes,” Dr. Thomas Marvel, president of Justec Research, a criminal justice statistics research organization, told RCI.
The FBI did not respond to RCI's repeated requests for comment.
Major revision of violent crime statistics
The actual changes in crime are far-reaching. The latest data for 2022 shows an increase of 80,029 violent crimes compared to 2021. Additionally, there were 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. Naturally, the question arises: Should we believe the FBI's 2023 numbers?
Revised FBI data shows increased crime rateImage source: RealClearInvestigations
Without this increase, the decline in violent crime in 2023 would have been more than half that, just 1.6% instead of the reported 3.5% decline.
The FBI isn't the only government agency revising its data. Bureau of Labor Statistics
grossly overrated 818,000 jobs created in the year ended March.
The FBI's revised crime statistics reveal how much speculation is involved even in the “final” numbers that politicians often grasp. The FBI doesn't just count reported crimes. Instead, we provide estimates by extrapolating data from police departments that only report data for some years. The bureau also makes estimates for cities that do not report data. The way the FBI calculates these estimates changes over time, which affects the numbers the bureau reports.
” [FBI’s] Processes such as how one attempts to “estimate” unreported numbers have long been a black box, even for the Justice Department's actual statistical arm, the Bureau of Justice Statistics. ”
say Jeffrey Anderson served as director of the Department of Justice's Bureau of Justice Statistics from 2017 to 2021.
When he was director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics, Anderson said, “I'm pretty sure that we highlighted in our press releases and reports the 6.6% change recorded in 2022, which moved violent crime numbers from a decline to an increase.” It turned around,” he said.
many crimes go unreported
Another problem with the FBI's crime data is its reliance on reported crimes. According to the National Crime Victim Survey, most crimes go unreported, with only about 45% of violent crimes and 30% of property crimes coming to the attention of police. The FBI only tracks reported incidents, and this difference is so large that when the media discusses crime rates based on FBI data, it gives the impression that the total number of crimes is changing. The researchers argue that it should be made clear that it reflects “reported” crimes, rather than giving them.
Not reporting a crime does not affect all crimes equally. It is relatively rare for murders and auto thefts to go unreported. In a murder case, the victim cannot be overlooked, and in the case of auto theft, a police report is required for insurance claims. But even these numbers are difficult to fully trust, as the FBI underreported 1,699 homicides and 54,216 auto thefts in 2022, raising questions about the reliability of the data. .
There has been a lot of attention lately on the decline in the homicide rate, but even after taking into account the revised numbers, the homicide rate is still below the pre-COVID-19 level, despite a 16.2% decline from 2020 to 2023. 9.6% higher than the level.
Half a century ago, the Department of Justice offered a comprehensive crime strategy that included both reported and unreported crimes. Results from the Department of Justice Statistics
2023 National Crime Victimization Surveyreleased in mid-September, tells a very different story than the FBI data.
NCVS interviews 240,000 people each year about their personal experiences.
While the FBI reported a 3.5% decrease in violent crime rates in 2023, the NCVS found that:
4.1% increase In reported violent crime rates. Even considering the revised FBI numbers, the FBI's 4.5% increase in 2022 pales in comparison to the NCVS's 29.3% increase.
FBI — Changes in reported crime ratesImage source: RealClearInvestigations
In recent years, the number of police officers has been decreasing due to budget cuts and an increase in the number of retirees. One result is that police departments across the country
charlottesville and henrico countyVirginia, to chicagoIllinois, and Olympia, Washington. — No longer answers calls unless the perpetrator is still actively committing a crime there. Instead of police coming out to investigate and write a report, residents in these jurisdictions can go to a police station and wait in line to have a police report filled out. Additionally, the FBI does not officially tally 911 calls, despite the widespread belief that 911 calls alone are sufficient to report a crime. A crime is only counted if the police issue an official report.
Some data shows a sharp increase in crime.
While the FBI claims that serious violent crimes have decreased by 5.8% since President Biden took office, NCVS numbers show that the total number of violent crimes has decreased.
55.4% increase. During Biden's term, rapes increased by 42%, robberies by 63% and aggravated assaults by 55%. The largest increase in the three years since the NCVS was launched was 27% in 2006, so the increase has more than doubled under the Biden administration.
The NCVS increase under the Biden-Harris administration is the largest increase in the past three years and is slightly more than double the previous record.
Compare prices for 2023 Compared to pre-COVID-19 violent crime rates in 2019, the FBI's new data for 2023 shows virtually no improvement, only a 0.2% decline, while the NCVS shows a 19% decline over this period. shows an increase in However, news media did not report on the criminal investigation announced last month.
“The media has been using 2022 FBI data to tell us that crime is down for a year, and it's unfortunate that there are no news articles that correct that false impression,” Moody told RCI. . “We will have to wait and see if the FBI later revise the 2023 numbers as well.”
Earlier this year, the media made headlines
like national public radio: “Even if Americans don't believe it, violent crime is rapidly declining in the United States.” “At some point in 2022… there was just a tipping point where violence started to decline and continued to decline. '' claimed NPR. But now the FBI itself has admitted that its violent crime numbers were way off.
Even though public opinion polls show Americans are concerned about crime, the FBI and media have difficulty understanding how crime rates have changed over the past few years. a
gallup survey A survey late last year found that 92% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats thought crime was increasing. In a February Rasmussen Reports study, 4.7-1 marginVoters probably think violent crime in the U.S. is getting worse (61%), not better (13%). Gallup poll Found In March, it announced that “crime and violence” was Americans' second biggest concern after inflation. However, the media and politicians used the FBI's inaccurate data to try to convince people they were wrong.
“this
FBI report The report does not say that violent crimes in 2022 increased significantly more than previously reported, nor does it explain why new crime rates are so high, adding that this major revision It's surprising because they haven't even issued a press release about it,” David said. Mr. Mustard is the Josiah Meigs Distinguished Professor at the University of Georgia and has researched crime extensively. “This lack of transparency undermines the FBI's credibility.”
Editor's note: This article was originally published on real clear survey.
