Conflicts continue to escalate around the world, undermining stability in key regions. Diplomatic space is shrinking, and the United States, despite its earnest efforts, is running out of time.
Repeated appeals for peace, no matter how persistent, are not enough to overcome the deep complexities of the current crisis.
What was once hailed as “''90% completeA deal in Gaza now seems like a distant reality. Just two weeks ago, a U.S.-backed proposal emerged: 21 days ceasefireThe plan, aimed at fostering diplomatic engagement between Israel and Hezbollah along the Blue Line, failed to gain traction and subsequently triggered a significant escalation.
Mediation efforts are underway in Sudan to broker a ceasefire. under siege The Sudanese National Army, one of the belligerents in the brutal civil war, has launched a new offensive.
Successful diplomacy requires a balance between incentives and consequences. Offering rewards without responsibility (the proverbial carrot without a stick) is unlikely to change the situation.
It is not that the world lacks an appetite for diplomacy and mediation. China succeeded in mediating Improving relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a good example.
COP28 enabled meaningful negotiations and difficult concessions that ultimately led to an agreement. A ground-breaking new treaty on intellectual property, genetic resources and related traditional knowledge was also signed. adopted By agreement of the members of the World Intellectual Property Organization.
More recently, Iranian officials suggested that: Willingness to respond to discussion with the usa
But despite these efforts, Western diplomacy too often misses important opportunities.
With few exceptions, diplomatic breakthroughs are becoming increasingly rare. promotion of united arab emirates prisoner exchange It stands out as a rare success between Russia and Ukraine. Created by Türkiye and Armenia good progress After two years of stagnation, efforts were made to normalize diplomatic relations.
But success cannot be measured only in new agreements and treaties. Main diplomatic achievements this year – agreement for the futureapproved by the United Nations General Assembly, but faces serious doubts about its ability to deliver on its promises.
Beyond the question of a new treaty, the agreement raises larger concerns about whether international organizations like the United Nations are still capable of dealing with complex modern conflicts. Whether in a situation of all-out war, escalating tensions, or a prolonged stalemate, diplomacy must remain central.
So how do we begin to explain the stagnation in global diplomacy?
Increasing polarization of the international landscape and the rise of populism are creating an environment in which it becomes increasingly difficult to secure a prudent and productive negotiating space.
Domestic political cycles also pose challenges. In 2024, Over 64 countries Nearly half of the world's population is planning elections, and many are facing significant political transitions. This undermines the long-term focus and sustained effort required of diplomacy.
For example, upcoming elections in the United States and potentially in Israel could significantly change the tone and content of diplomatic efforts in the Middle East. after that Taiwan presidential electionthe risk of escalating dynamics caused by Taiwan's domestic politics has not yet been confirmed.
From Russia and Sudan to Central Africa, leaders in conflict are either consolidating power or fighting for survival. Without their direct involvement, diplomatic agreements will become increasingly difficult to secure.
Foreign policy often reflects domestic political agendas, and senior diplomats are simply extensions of their leaders' views rather than experts who can articulate broader international perspectives. Even foreign ministers are often constrained and unable to present a position that differs from that of the head of state.
Yet, despite these limitations, diplomats involved in conflict mediation, both formal and informal, remain committed to returning to the negotiating table.
On the ground, the attitude of pursuing victory at any cost has overshadowed the attitude of compromise, and ultimatums have come to be given instead of dialogue. Beyond the battlefield, economic interests, connections, and geopolitical competition dominate the debate, and diplomacy is relegated to the background.
The focus has shifted from diplomacy to competition for influence and power.
All countries, large and small, have good reason to continue to invest in their diplomacy. Countries facing economic or military decline can use it to restore their standing, and rising middle powers can use it to carve out a more prominent role on the world stage.
Diplomacy remains essential for everyone. Countries such as Turkey, India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have already positioned themselves as major diplomatic players, leveraging their economic and military influence to assert their influence. These middle powers could serve as much-needed intermediaries in future negotiations.
Once the election year settles down, newly elected governments will need to show political courage and creativity to restore diplomacy's role in global governance. As fatigue sets in from constant regional conflicts, an opportunity will emerge to reinvigorate diplomatic efforts, if they are truly comprehensive. Middle powers, regional organizations and civil society organizations need to be integrated into future diplomatic frameworks to create more sustainable solutions.
Perhaps it is also time to revisit some of the innovative forms of diplomacy of the past that have helped bridge differences. The diamond-shaped table good friday agreementHere even powerful opponents like Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams could sit next to each other and opposite each other. or Majlis style diplomacy This is common practice in the Gulf region and fosters respectful dialogue and consensus building.
These and many other forms can provide a valuable framework for addressing regional conflicts and promoting trust and long-term stability in an increasingly polarized world. It has proven its worth in diplomatic situations.
Eric Alter is Dean and Professor of International Law and Diplomacy at the Anwar Gargash Academy of Diplomacy in Abu Dhabi. Nikolai Mladenov is the Executive Director of the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy.
