Social Security trust fund reserves could be depleted as early as 2031 under former President Trump's proposal, several years earlier than recently predicted. new analysis This was announced by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).
In an analysis released Monday, the fiscal watchdog said President Trump's actions include eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay, imposing new tariffs and expanding deportations. The impact of several proposals on social security finance was examined. In the next few years,
After stronger-than-expected economic growth last year, the program's trustees expect Social Security's combined retirement and disability benefits trust fund to run out in 2035, a year later than previously expected. I'm predicting.
But under President Trump's proposal, the CRFB would be depleted of funding by 2031, estimating that Social Security's cash deficit could increase by $2.3 trillion from fiscal year 2026 to fiscal year 2035. .
CRFB took a closer look at the price and said its central estimates found the largest cost attributable to President Trump's proposal to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, including $950 billion. It is said to be costly.
The next big item, eliminating payroll taxes on tips and overtime, would cost about $900 billion, and proposed changes to customs and immigration could add $400 billion to Social Security's cash deficit.
Eliminating taxes on tips and overtime would lead to a reduction in “payroll taxes collected from the Social Security Trust Fund,” while imposing large tariffs on imported goods would “reduce cost-of-living adjustments through higher inflation rates.” COLA) may increase or tax may be reduced,” the analysis states.
The CRFB also said the expansion of deportations could result in fewer “immigrant workers paying into the Social Security Trust Fund.”
The Trump campaign condemned the analysis in a statement Monday.
“CRFB's so-called experts have been consistently wrong for years. President Trump made good on his promise to protect Social Security in his first term, and President Trump will continue to strongly protect Social Security in his second term.” '' Trump campaign press secretary Caroline Levitt said in a statement that she instead blamed Vice President Harris, saying the immigration policies on her agenda would “distort and destroy Social Security.''
The CRFB said Harris' plan to strengthen border security and extend parts of the 2017 tax law signed by President Trump could “widen the Social Security deficit by cutting revenue from payroll and benefit taxes.” He said that there is. But the group said her campaign's overall proposal would not “significantly impact the solvency of the Social Security Trust Fund.”
“At the same time, minimum wage increases and various tax compliance measures are likely to strengthen payroll tax collections and reduce the social security deficit,” the CRFB said. “On the net, these changes are likely to result in a modest increase in the 10-year deficit and advance bankruptcies by weeks or months.”
The CRFB also predicted that bankruptcy benefit reductions could be greater under President Trump's proposal than under current law. The group estimates that Trump's plan would cut after-tax benefits for about half of beneficiaries by 33%, compared to 23% under current law.
“But for seniors with enough income to pay taxes on their benefits, the cut was nearly 30%, for households with retirement income of about $100,000 a year, it was reduced by 26%, and for the highest income households, it was reduced by 3%. ,” the group said, assessing the potential impact of President Trump's proposed policies so far.
playing cards said During his election campaign, he claimed that he would not cut Social Security by a penny. But experts say lawmakers will likely need to find agreement on raising taxes, cutting benefits, or both to prevent across-the-board benefit cuts if the system collapses in the coming years. There is.
“Recovering solvency over the next 75 years would require the equivalent of cutting all future benefits by 24% or increasing revenues by 35%,” the CRFB said in an analysis Monday. .
But the group's recent scores on Trump's previous Medicare proposals were more favorable to the former president. CRFB analysis A review of Trump's final budget proposal as president found that the proposals he proposed at the time would “strengthen” Medicare's financial position and “slightly slow” Medicare cost growth.
