The Vikings head west Thursday night to take on the Rams in an NFC battle that will bring plenty of intrigue.
Two key offensive players are expected to return, with TJ Hockenson (knee) returning to the field for the first time this season for the Vikings and Cooper Kupp (ankle) returning to the lineup for the first time since Week 2 for the Rams.
Let's take a closer look at the match and see where there's value in this prime-time match.
Vikings vs. Rams “TNF'' odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| vikings | -3 (-105) | -160 | o48 (-110) |
| rams | +3 (-115) | +135 | u48 (-110) |
When the Vikings have the ball
Sam Darnold has far exceeded most expectations with the Vikings and is a perfect fit in Kevin O'Connell's masterful offensive system.
Darnold ranks fifth in the NFL with 8.3 yards per pass attempt and is highly accurate, ranking third in pass completion percentage above expectations.
Headlined by Justin Jefferson, the Vikings are loaded with receiving weapons that look ready to overwhelm the Rams' secondary.
Los Angeles ranks 26th in defensive EPA against the pass this season, and while the return of cornerback Darius Williams has helped, the team's safety hasn't lived up to the press.
The Rams rank 27th in DVOA against deep balls this season, and Darnold is the league's third-most efficient deep ball passer according to YPA.
Minnesota should also be able to get its run game going against a Rams defense that ranks 27th in adjusted line yards.
Aaron Jones' ability to succeed on early downs should help protect Darnold from obvious passing situations against the Rams' pressure unit, and that's the best part of the Rams' defense.
when the rams have the ball
Kupp's expected return should be a big boost for a team that has had one of the worst receiver corps in the league in recent weeks.
But my biggest concern with this matchup is Matthew Stafford's ability to survive pressure against Brian Flores' electric defense. LA also could bring back WR Puka Nacua (questionable).
Pass protection has been a big issue for the Rams, with the Vikings ranking second in blitz rate and first in pressure rate this season.
Stafford has been pressured on 26.5 percent of his dropbacks (third-highest rate in the NFL), and Los Angeles has yet to find continuity on the offensive line amid injuries and below-average play from various starters.
Stafford ranked 32nd out of 38 eligible quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus passing grade under pressure, with five turnover-worthy plays and no big-time throws.
Kupp's return helps that dynamic some, but Stafford's lack of mobility at this stage of his career poses significant problems against this swarming Minnesota pass rush.
The Rams will rely on Kyren Williams on early downs to protect Stafford from obvious passing situations, but the Vikings have the second-best run defense in the NFL this season on early downs allowed by EPA. are.
They also rank first in run defense DVOA.
final verdict
There's little doubt that Stafford is a better pure quarterback than Darnold.
But I would argue that the Vikings have a huge advantage in every other aspect of this game, especially in the trenches.
The Rams struggled to defeat a poor Raiders team on Sunday despite a +3 turnover margin that included a defensive touchdown.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
The Vikings won't be too kind when it comes to giveaways in this game.
The situation favors the Rams, and the Vikings will be on the road in a short week after a tough game against the Lions in the regional league.
Still, the schematic advantages for Minnesota are overwhelming.
I'm rooting for Kevin O'Connell to lead his team to victory in the first game against his former boss Sean McVay.
Recommendation: Vikings -3 (-105, Caesars Sportsbook)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
