As wars rage in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Beijing once again Sounding the saber towards Taiwan. In doing so, it once again focuses attention on East Asia, reminding us that the world is at risk of a war even more destructive than the one it is already facing. A battle over Taiwan would be disastrous for both sides. To prevent this from happening, the United States must also make the People's Republic of China aware that the costs of conflict are unacceptably high.
If it is certain that the three conditions are met, the risk that Beijing will attempt to forcibly “unify” Taiwan and mainland China increases significantly. The first is that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has established sufficient regional military dominance in the region around Taiwan to win the battle against the United States and its allies. Second, China will be able to contain the conflict in theaters of its own choosing. Finally, the economic impact will be minimal.
American planners are focused on turning Taiwan into “.Porcupine with poor digestion” to counter the first one. This is necessary, but not sufficient. By focusing solely on the defense of Taiwan, we cede control to China and allow China to concentrate its forces and focus on its objectives.
If the United States truly wants to deter Beijing, it must make clear that it will raise the stakes beyond what China is willing to bet. As China became a world power, it acquired dependencies far from its borders. The United States should be prepared to respond to attacks on Taiwan by targeting these vulnerable assets.
The obvious starting point is another strait, Malacca. 70% of China's oil imports Passed. Simply accepting a shutdown is not an option for the Chinese government. China also depends on huge fishing fleet. Thousands of these live far beyond the coasts of China, making them ripe targets. Without naval escort, even allies with small navies can easily be annihilated.
These examples just scratch the surface. China's military and economic vulnerabilities are numerous and exist around the world, including in space and online. In each case, one must be prepared to divert or make sacrifices to protect PLA assets. It would also allow the U.S. military to leverage its biggest advantage over the People's Liberation Army: its strike-anywhere ability and global alliances.
If China's interests are threatened across the Taiwan Strait, Beijing will have to decide whether it is willing to risk massive economic damage and escalation of conflict in its bid to seize Taiwan. It will also be more difficult for the People's Liberation Army to concentrate the overwhelming force needed to do so. Knowing that it also has to fight to keep Malacca open and protect its fishing fleet will need to divert assets that would have been destined for Taiwan. As Sun Tzu once advised, “If his armies are united, separate them.”
This will require a major shift in thinking in Washington. U.S. policymakers tend to treat escalation of conflict only as a risk to be avoided. This can be seen in the desperate attempts to prevent Israel and Ukraine from aggressively pursuing victory even though they are fighting a common enemy. This was evident in the Global War on Terror, where the United States was tolerant. Iranian support for Iraqi rebels With minimal impact.
Concerns are understandable, especially in a nuclear-armed state like China. As many have warned, tensions between the two countries are Existing superpowers and emerging superpowers It's a tinder box. And the escalation of retaliation catastrophic nuclear exchange.
But it would be even more foolhardy to tempt China into starting a conflict over Taiwan by believing that it can define the scope of the conflict in its favor. This is especially true because China itself is unlikely to restrict itself to Taiwan. There is a possibility that an attack could be carried out to prevent the US military stationed in Japan, Guam, etc. from interfering. President Xi Jinping may even ask North Korea to attack South Korea to further distract the United States while occupying Taiwan.
Rather, the United States should clarify what it will consider on the table if President Xi decides to attack Taiwan. And please be equally clear that mainland China will remain inviolable, except for military assets engaged in hostilities. This message must be conveyed tactfully so as not to provoke the war it seeks to prevent.
When the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, they believed that a quick and decisive victory would be the beginning and end of the war with America. That miscalculation led to four years of unrestricted war and millions of deaths. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran similarly believed they could limit the scope of their conflict with Israel, and are now suffering the consequences of that mistake. To prevent Beijing from following in their footsteps and dragging the world further into war, the United States must make clear that the consequences of attacking Taiwan will be intolerable.
Ultimately, the best way to prevent war with China is to make it clear to Beijing that it is not just a war over Taiwan. It will be a war over the future of China's global presence.
Dan Nides is a former Marine Corps captain and Iraq War veteran who currently works in Silicon Valley.
