Vanlion Capital Management CEO Shana Cissell and Bullseye American Ingenuity Fund Portfolio Manager Adam Johnson discuss Meta and Alphabet's earnings and how a divided government will affect stocks.
The Ministry of Labor is scheduled to release its report. job report Economic data for October will be released on Friday, the last major economic data ahead of next week's Election Day and Federal Reserve policy meeting.
US voters and Fed policymakers will have an opportunity to analyze the US situation. labor market And factor that into each decision next week. Voters will decide whether control of the government will be split between Democrats and Republicans or unified, while central bank policymakers will decide whether and how much to lower interest rates again. It will be.
The U.S. economy is expected to add 115,000 jobs in October, according to a survey of economists at LSEG. This would represent a much slower pace of job growth than in September, when 254,000 jobs were added, well above the LSEG forecast of 140,000.
October's jobs report will be influenced in part by several factors that could cause job growth to be slower than expected, including recent hurricanes and labor unrest in the southeastern United States.
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October jobs data will be released on Friday, giving voters and central bank policymakers an update on the state of the labor market ahead of a busy political and economic week. (Joe Radle/Getty Images/Getty Images)
Nancy Vanden Houten, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said the company expects net U.S. employment to decline due to the ongoing Boeing strike, as well as recently resolved smaller strikes and layoffs in the auto sector. He explained that he expected it to be lost. manufacturing industry However, what is attributable to the strike may be revealed in future reports.
“This strike will affect 33,000 Boeing Co. employees, and 5,000 workers at Textron, a Kansas aerospace parts maker, will go on strike, resulting in disruption to the manufacturing industry,” he said in the report. “We expect employment to decline by 50,000 people,” he said. Vanden Houten added that the Textron strike ended a week ago, but was in place during the reference period for the Bureau of Labor Statistics' October employment report.
The number of job openings has fallen more than expected, reaching the lowest level since January 2021
The economic turmoil caused by the damage caused by hurricanes Helen and Milton is expected to weigh on October's employment report. (Javin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images/Getty Images)
He also noted that layoffs at Stellantis affected approximately 2,000 workers, with ongoing layoffs continuing. boeing strike It has caused problems for the aerospace giant's suppliers and furloughed workers in other sectors. An additional strike by 3,400 hotel workers will undermine job creation in the leisure and hospitality industry.
Vanden Houten added: Hurricanes Helen and Milton About 70,000 jobs are expected to be subtracted from net job growth across all industries, but most notably in leisure and hospitality, business and professional services, and construction.
He said there is “considerable uncertainty about the employment impact of hurricanes,” but the company's analysis shows the impact of hurricanes on comparable regions and the affected industries in the areas hardest hit by hurricanes. He said that both the size of employment and the size of employment are taken into consideration. Like Asheville, North Carolina.
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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the central bank's policy-making arm are scheduled to announce their decision to cut interest rates on November 7th. (Mandel Gunn/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images)
Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, offered a similar analysis of the impact on October's jobs report, explaining that the economic outlook could be mixed after the jobs report. . ADP job report Wednesday's data showed that U.S. third-quarter GDP was stronger than expected and lower than expected.
“We expect Friday's employment report to be soft due to the hurricanes and strikes, but so far this week, while job openings are down and layoffs are up, ADP private payrolls are up. “The data is mixed, with some saying it was the best year in a year.” “While GDP may have been slightly lower than expected, it still suggests the economy is still strong. And inflation continues to trend downward, so it's not overheating. In short: The data confirms that Fed rate cut plan. ”
Markets now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, after cutting rates by a larger than usual 50 basis points in September, making it the first rate cut in four years. As of Wednesday, traders were pricing in a 94.6% chance of a 25 basis point (bp) cut, and only a 5.4% chance the Fed would leave rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
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Those expectations have changed markedly over the past month, with traders having a 65.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 34.7% chance of a second 50 basis point rate cut as of September 30, according to CME FedWatch. %.
