The NFL trade deadline is Tuesday, and several players have found new homes before the second half of the regular season begins.
Two NFC contenders have made all-in moves that could change their fortunes in what looks like a far-reaching conference.
Let's analyze each team's moves and future odds.
Detroit Lions acquire DE Za'Darius Smith
Since 1979, only nine teams have ranked in the top five in all three stages of DVOA after Week 8 of the season, according to FTN's Aaron Schatz.
Six of those teams won the Super Bowl.
The Lions are the ninth team.
Detroit is clearly a top contender. However, my only major concern was the team's pass rush after losing top Defensive Player of the Year candidate Aidan Hutchinson to a season-ending foot injury.
According to TruMedia, the Lions had a pressure rate of 53% and five sacks through the first six weeks of the season. Since Hutchinson's injury, his pressure rate has dropped to 21%.
Detroit's front office recognized this flaw and acquired edge rusher Za'Darius Smith from the Cleveland Browns in a third-day pick swap.
Smith is far from a one-on-one successor to Hutchinson. According to TruMedia, his pressure rate this season is 13.9%, while Hutchinson's pressure rate was an impressive 25%. Hutchinson ranks fourth in the NFL with 45 total pressures, and he did it in just five games.
However, Smith could play a valuable role in the Lions' pass rush.
There's not much value in the Lions winning the Super Bowl at +480 odds or winning the NFC North at -250 odds at BetMGM.
Detroit has all the pieces it takes to win a title this year, and I would be interested in a buyout if the championship price is long-term after a loss at some point.
Washington Commanders acquire CB Marshon Lattimore
First-year head coach Dan Quinn deserves a lot of credit for turning around the Commanders' defense.
Washington ranked last in EPA per play allowed through the first four weeks of the year. Since Week 5, they have ranked 8th in EPA per pass allowed, including 3rd.
One of the key changes Quinn made was moving rookie Mike Theinristil to the perimeter in place of Emmanuel Forbes Jr., who is ranked 199th out of 205 eligible corners by Pro Football Focus. It was to be moved to.
However, Sainristil fits more comfortably into that slot, and this move to acquire Marshon Lattimore allows him to play inside more often.
Lattimore ranks 25th out of 117 qualified corners in PFF coverage grade and hasn't allowed a touchdown in coverage since the 2021 season.
If Quinn deems it necessary based on the matchup, he can shadow the opponent's top wide receiver, often shutting out his teammates on the field.
The managers' run defense remains shaky, ranking last in line yards allowed to running backs, according to FTN.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
But with a pass rush that ranks fourth in ESPN's Win Percentage Index and a much-improved secondary, this defense tends to pair with an offense that performs at an elite level with rookie Jaden Daniels.
Washington ranks 29th in strength of schedule against DVOA, with four of its last eight games coming against teams with winning records.
This team's chances to win the NFC East loom large with two dates against the Eagles (+110 odds).
Commanders to win the Super Bowl on FanDuel is priced at 22/1, and we can't blame you for picking up Villa at that price.
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
