Midweek MACtion is back!
After two games on Tuesday night, the fun continues on Wednesday with two more matchups available to analyze and bet on.
That includes Western Michigan, undefeated in conference play, taking on Northern Illinois in an intriguing matchup.
Northern Illinois, Western Michigan
Western Michigan had a surprisingly strong season, leading the MAC with a conference record of 4-0.
Coach Lance Taylor led Kalamazoo's resurgence after the Broncos went 4-8 last year.
However, the Broncos are definitely benefiting from some positive turnover swings. Their four wins in the MAC resulted in a +9 turnover margin.
On the other side of the difference coin is Northern Illinois University, which has lost four of six games since its upset win over Notre Dame.
However, each of the Huskies' four losses came on one possession, and they outscored their opponents by nearly 400 total yards in those four games.
I believe it's time to buy the Huskies' dip, especially as the offense is getting healthier.
Quarterback Ethan Hampton, running back Antario Brown and wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph are all back in the lineup after being sidelined earlier this season, taking advantage of a Western Michigan defense that ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in EPA. You should be able to do it. Success rate is acceptable.
Last week, the Broncos allowed over 500 yards of total offense to an Akron offense that ranked 123rd per play in EPA.
Western Michigan's offense is excellent, led by a dominant offensive line and strong backfield.
Quarterback Hayden Wolfe, a transfer from Old Dominion, has also been impressive, with 15 touchdown passes and three interceptions.
However, Northern Illinois has the best defense the Broncos have seen in conference play, ranking sixth nationally in completion percentage allowed and 15th in yards allowed.
The betting lines for this game tell us that the Huskies are chosen as the road favorites despite each team's recent performance.
With a healthier offense and better defense, I'm rooting for Northern Illinois to get back on track with a win.
Recommendation: Northern Illinois Moneyline (-125, BetMGM).
Kent State University in Ohio
Kent State was having a terrible season, ranking last in the FBS in net EPA per play.
The Golden Flashes are down to their third-string quarterback, who is forced to stand behind a fearsome offensive line.
Tommy Wlatowski is pressured on 54.7% of his dropbacks, but Kent State is averaging the lowest yards per carry in the nation at 2.4 yards per carry.
However, I don't want to back the Bobcats as a heavy favorite.
They rank below 100 nationally in EPA per play and recently lost superstar running back Anthony Tyus to injury.
Do you want to bet on college football?
Parker Navarro performed better than I expected at quarterback.
Still, Curtis Rourke's departure is notable since the former Ohio State quarterback led Indiana to an undefeated record.
I'm leaning towards the under as both offenses have struggled this season.
Ohio's defense will be the best unit on the field, ranking 33rd in EPA per rush allowed and 37th in third-down conversion rate allowed.
Also, keep an eye on the weather in Kent, as wind and rain can be a factor.
Recommended value: Lean Under 52.5 (-114, FanDuel).
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
