Something strange is happening among American voters. Gone are the days when George W. Bush voters checked every (R) box at the bottom of the list. Voters on Tuesday did not cooperate. President-elect Donald J. Trump may have won and Republicans may have taken control of the Senate (and possibly the House), but it's not all wine and roses for the Grand Old Party.
In Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin defended her seat against businessman Eric Hovde by about 29,000 votes. In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin beat Rep. Mike Rogers by more than 21,000 votes. Although it has not yet been called, Nevada Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen leads Afghanistan war veteran Sam Brown by nearly 12,700 votes, and Arizona Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads news anchor He leads Kari Lake by more than 52,000 votes.
The problems that need to be addressed are not limited to the Republican establishment.
What's strange is that Trump won all of these states. He won Wisconsin by a margin of 58,000 votes, the same number Hovde lost. He won Michigan by about 80,000 votes (a difference of 100,000 votes). Nevada: 51,000 votes. Arizona: 136,000 people.
Trump also won more than 140,000 votes over McCormick in Pennsylvania, where Republican Dave McCormick declared victory over Democratic Sen. Bob Casey on Thursday.
The state race is anything but conventional. Arizona, for example, is an outlier, making Mr. Lake a divisive figure as he faces a Hispanic man in a state where one in three voters is Hispanic. And Baldwin is the incumbent (as is Casey). Mr. Rogers is an unrepentant war hawk and Israel hardliner who is not President Trump in a state where anti-Israel Muslim voters withheld support from Vice President Kamala Harris, while Mr. Slotkin is Jewish. , a former CIA officer and Pentagon attaché, complicates the situation. story.
In Wisconsin, the America First candidate received enough votes to give Hovde a narrow 241-point lead over Baldwin, and the Libertarian Party candidate's votes would give Hovde a narrow 241-point lead over Baldwin. We were able to create a difference of 42,000 points. In Michigan, the Liberal vote would have overwhelmed Mr. Rogers and overtook Mr. Slotkin, but the Green Party candidate gave nearly identical votes to the Democratic Party. And across the country, Greens, Liberals and other independents also played spoilers or tried to play spoilers. In any case, it is difficult to know how many of their supporters voted in protest (otherwise they would not vote Republican or Democratic).
Then there are those who are just Trump. These are low-propensity voters who don't answer pollsters' calls and can't be reached outside of YouTube or TV sports ads. They don't know who the Senate candidates are, and they don't care. Approximately 19,000 Wisconsinites voted for president but not for Senate candidates. In Arizona, that number is (currently) close to 26,500. Nevada: 18,177. Pennsylvania: 68,391. And in Michigan, the vote against Israel's war was even higher at 86,784. Data and results suggest that many of those votes went to Donald J. Trump.
The problems that need to be addressed are not limited to the Republican establishment. Mr. Trump outperformed all Republican senators except Utah and Wyoming, but among those with the largest margins were Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by about 400,000 votes and Ohio Sen. Incoming candidate Bernie Moreno received about 300,000 votes, a smaller number but a much larger percentage. of a small district in Ohio.
This is a reality that all Republicans must grapple with even as they celebrate their victory. Like former President Barack Obama, the coalition Trump has built is a fickle one. Not only is that not a given for the Republican Party, it's not a natural thing for the Republican Party to begin with. And supporting Trump's policies is not an easy cure. Republicans will need to find the key to this coalition and do everything in their power to win it. Remember: Trump will never be on Americans' ballots again.
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