The People’s Republic of NY-13: Analysis of election results

Daliaza Avila Chevalier Knocks Out Adriano Espaillat in Primary Upset

In a surprising turn of events, Democratic socialist Daliaza Avila Chevalier has unseated five-term Congressman Adriano Espaillat in a heated Democratic primary for New York’s 13th Congressional District, which covers Upper Manhattan and parts of the Bronx.

With around 88% of votes tallied, reports indicate that Avila Chevalier is leading with 49.4% to Espaillat’s 45.9%, according to the New York Times.

One local voter, Juan Alvarez, expressed his support, saying, “I voted for her because Zoran supported her.”

“I am incredibly grateful for the community’s support,” Avila Chevalier remarked, “and I’m proud they chose me to represent them in Congress,” as noted by Norwood News.

Now, let’s take a deeper look at the results.

The 13th Congressional District boasts a population of approximately 750,000 over just 11 square miles—meaning it has about 68,000 residents per square mile. In recent elections, votes from Manhattan have outweighed those from the Bronx.

The district’s median age is about 39, with demographics showing that 50% of residents identify as Hispanic, 24% as Black, and 17% as White.

Economically, it ranks among the poorest districts in the U.S., with about a quarter of its residents living below the poverty line, and a median household income just above $52,400.

Despite trailing in the Bronx by 28 points, Avila Chevalier managed to flip the script in Manhattan, where she led by eight points.

Espaillat found backing from Black (+2.2) and Hispanic (+15.3) voters, as well as those in low-income neighborhoods (+10.2). Conversely, Avila Chevalier garnered support from younger voters (+24.5) and areas with a higher percentage of college-educated residents (+19.2). This trend reflects broader patterns for democratic socialists, such as the popular New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani.

The Times notes that Avila Chevalier also has an edge in affluent areas by 5.1 points.

In a victory speech, Avila Chevalier declared, “The politics of the past end today,” and added, “Gone are the days of accepting a check, cashing it, and calling it representation.”

She then spoke directly to the assembled supporters, stating, “To all the little Black and Brown girls, Muje Dominicana, my Muslim sisters, and all working-class people here, our time has come.”