The results of last week's election were somewhat of a shock.
However, control of the House and Senate fell within the range expected by many learned observers.
The Senate is likely to be Republican, and Republicans are likely to pick up one or two seats to make up their majority.
The House was expected to be close. There were predictions that a breakdown in the House would likely reflect today's majority-minority divide. The only question was which party would have the majority. And control of the House of Representatives was likely to reflect the outcome of the presidential election.
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House Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), are on track to maintain a narrow majority, while Senate Democrats, led by Representative Chuck Schumer (New York), suffered a landslide defeat last Tuesday. (Reuters)
You know the rest.
The House is close to a close race and will likely be in Republican hands. If all is said and done, Republicans will likely win between 221 and 223 seats. The Senate went to Republicans with fewer members.
So tell me what you think about the presidential election. But few people's predictions for the House and Senate were wrong.
In the Senate, the map has always favored Republicans. The Republicans will likely immediately take on incoming Sen. Jim Justice (RW.V.), who is claiming the seat of former Sen. Joe Manchin (I.W.V.), who allied with Democrats.
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) were the Democrats most at risk this cycle. Both represented states that strongly support President-elect Trump. However, Brown and Tester consistently proved that they could win races even in difficult environments. Additionally, Brown and Tester always appeared on the ballot in 2006, 2012 and 2018 when they were Democrats.
Democrats won both houses of Congress in 2006. It was “six years of trouble” for President George W. Bush. Second midterm elections are often tough for the president's faction in Congress. Voters returned former President Obama to the White House in 2012, and Democrats took control of the House of Representatives in 2018.
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In Ohio, Trump appears to have won the Buckeye State by a staggering 11 points.
Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) has always been expected to run behind Trump, and the president-elect would need to carry Ohio by about 10 points to unseat Brown. was. Moreno defeated Brown by four points.
It appears that incoming Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pennsylvania) has removed Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pennsylvania) from his seat. Vice President Harris' poor performance in the Keystone State hurt Democrats like Casey. Harris lost to Pennsylvania by about two points. Anything else about Casey? Like Mr. Brown and Mr. Tester, he was in the same election cycle in 2006, 2012, 2018 and 2024. Had Democrats done better in Pennsylvania, they would have had a fighting chance to flip the House. They unsuccessfully tried to oust former Freedom Caucus Chairman Rep. Scott Perry (R-Penn.). Meanwhile, Republican challengers defeated Rep. Susan Wilde (D-Pa.) and Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.). Democrats needed to unseat Mr. Perry and hold onto the House seat in order to win it.
Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pennsylvania) lost his seat to Republican challenger Robert Bresnahan. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc, via Getty Images)
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) won in a battleground state held by Mr. Trump, despite being in the same position as Brown, Tester and Casey. Michigan Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Sen.-elect also won in states held by the president-elect.
In the House, Democrats clung to several key seats needed to flip the House. Incoming Congressman Eugene Vindman (D-Virginia) defeated Republican Derrick Anderson in central Virginia. Rep. Marcy Capture (D-Ohio) plans to retain her seat. And despite Brown's loss and the president-elect's loss, Ohio Democrat Emilia Sykes won.
Newcomer Rep. Gabe Vazquez (DN.M.) defeated former Rep. Yvette Herrell (RN.M.) to win re-election in one of the most volatile races in the country. Vazquez's district in southern New Mexico has switched parties every election since 2016. Democrat Janelle Bynum is leading Rep. Lori Chavez Delemer (R-Ore.). Rep. Marie Grusenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) topped Republican Joe Kent. Grusenkamp Perez was the surprise winner of all 2022 House elections.
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In an interview with colleague Bret Baier, Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., said that moderates like Grusenkamp Perez won reelection by campaigning in their districts. I mentioned the circumstances behind it.
“In Marie's case, she was criticized by the Washington State Democratic Party for some of the votes and some of the positions she took. They threatened her in the primary. And she went out there and said Trump plus six '', Smith said.
Smith added that Democrats “have a lot to learn” from Reps. Grusenkamp Perez, Don Davis (D.N.C.) and Pat Ryan (D.Y.). And Vasquez.
Congresswoman Marie Grusenkamp Perez (D-Washington) won re-election over Republican challenger Joe Kent. (Getty Images)
In other words, Democrats appear to have done much of what was needed to win a House majority.
But it's not enough.
Take California, for example.
All eyes are on California as House majority remains determined by close races
It was thought that Vice President Harris' appointment to the top would help Democrats flip five or six seats in the Golden State alone. Harris is the state's former attorney general and U.S. senator.
No dice.
Representative Young Kim, Republican of California, won the race. Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.), Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), Michelle Steele (R-Calif.) and John Duarte (R-Calif.) all plan to defend their seats. The race remains close between Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) and Democratic challenger George Whiteside. So are Democrat Dave Ming and Republican Scott Baugh in the state's 47th Congressional District. Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) vacated her seat after a failed bid for the U.S. Senate.
Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) noted a “significant” shift in voter trends in his home deep blue state this term. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
“These areas are Democratic strongholds and are within a fraction of a percentage point of picking up two more seats. So in deep blue states, the voter shift was significant. Don't kid yourself, we are. “It's a deep blue state. But this change is significant,” California Republican Rep. Darrell Issa said on FOX Business.
The current breakdown of the Diet is as follows.
The number of members is 432. 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats. There are 3 vacant seats. Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) and Bill Pascrell (D.N.J.) have passed away. Former Congressman Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) has resigned. These seats are partisan districts. Therefore, the actual number of members would be 435, probably 221 Republicans and 214 Democrats.
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After all, campaigns will burn through billions of dollars in House races. And the result will probably be the same as it is now. Republicans will probably have a majority within one or two seats of the current breakdown.
For the sake of argument, let's say it's 221 Republicans to 214 Democrats. With a seven-vote difference, Republicans only need to lose three votes before needing Democratic support to pass the bill. It's the exact same problem that has plagued the Republican majority for the past two years. Passing anything is problematic if there are more than a few defectors or if one or two Republicans are absent. As I always say, you try to get 435 people in the same room at the same time.
For Republicans, President-elect Trump's assured victory would impose party discipline on much of his legislative work. But what if Republicans try to move forward with tax reform, and fiscal hawks take a backseat as deficits explode? Or, what if New York Republicans try to push through state and local tax relief, known as SALT? What if I request the restoration of ?
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Republicans could gain 53 seats in the Senate. But this is far from the 60 votes needed to break the filibuster. And while 53 is much better than the 51 Democrats in this Congress, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) defied the Trump administration last time. Don't forget that sometimes.
These are headaches that could hinder Republican governance. The Republican Party is more aligned now than it was in 2017, when President-elect Trump took office. But it's always about the reckoning on Capitol Hill. And Congressional Algebra presents some difficult equations that Republicans must solve to implement policy in the 119th Congress.
