Invest 99L continues to organize and is on track to develop into a tropical storm within days.
Florida residents are now keeping an eye on the system, which forecasters say will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Sarah by the end of the week.
The “investment” designation allows NOAA forecasters to run special computer forecasting models to obtain additional data about the disturbance's future growth potential.
National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on Wednesday that the disturbance is causing continued showers and thunderstorms associated with a widespread low-pressure system, and that the system is likely to move slowly into the western Caribbean Sea and quickly become a tropical cyclone.
NHC has almost certainly given the possibility that this system will be developed in the near future.
FOX weather hurricane expert Brian Norcross said: “The rudder current across the Caribbean Sea is so light that 'Sara-like' is expected to eventually wind its way through the western Caribbean near Central America over the weekend.” said.
Computer forecasting models then show the system could strengthen into a tropical cyclone, taking advantage of the region's warm oceans and low wind shear.
The FOX Prediction Center said these conditions could lead to Sarah becoming a hurricane, possibly a strong hurricane, in the future.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected across the region, from parts of Jamaica and Haiti to Central America and Mexico.
From there, an area of high pressure will form to the north of the system, and where it forms will ultimately determine Sara's future path, forecasters said.
The FOX Prediction Center said the system could move into Central America or head north into the Gulf of Mexico within the next week, potentially impacting Florida.
Florida residents should pay close attention to tropical weather forecasts
Norcross said a consensus of computer forecast models shows the system is forming near or offshore the Honduras-Nicaragua border and is likely to become a hurricane by early next week.
So what?
Norcross said a powerful hurricane could emerge in the Gulf of Mexico because computer models show Sara is likely moving north and threading its needle between Mexico and Cuba. .
“On the other hand, many possible forecasts have the system hovering over or near Central America and Cuba, including Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula,” Norcross said. “These forecasts generally indicate weakening storms in the Gulf of Mexico.”
Norcross said if the system maintains its core and proper structure as it passes over land, the southern Gulf of Mexico will have plenty of warm water to reorganize and strengthen before reaching Florida. He said there is.
“The fact that so many computer forecast models are showing a threat to Florida is concerning, but things could change,” Norcross said. “As always, when a system is under development, prediction errors can be large.”
Norcross went on to say that there's nothing to do right now except stay informed, so be sure to download the free FOX Weather app and turn on notifications for changes in the forecast. .
