Democrats refuse to believe polls showing people hate Biden economy
One of the reasons Democrats were caught off guard by the strength of support for Donald Trump across the United States was because Underestimating the importance of inflation and communicate the economic situation to voters.
According to a Gallup poll, the economy is the top concern among registered U.S. voters heading into the presidential election. Of the 22 topic areas, economics was the only topic on the agenda. Majority of voters (52%) He said candidates' positions were “very important” in shaping their choices. Voters favored former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris by a nine-point margin as the candidate who can address the nation's economic challenges.
Public confidence in the economy has increased since inflation started rising in 2021. became increasingly pessimisticas shown in Gallup's monthly index of Americans' perceptions of the country's economic health and future prospects. Gallup's final pre-election economic confidence index was -26, which is lower than in years when the incumbent prevailed, including in 1992, 2008, and 2016, when the incumbent president's party ultimately lost. It was more in line with election year economic sentiment. , 1996, 2004, 2012, etc.
But Democrats have consistently downplayed the importance of this issue. Many experts argued that surveys showing low consumer confidence merely reflected partisanship. Focusing on carefully selected economic data, they argued that: the economy was in great shape And he argued that voters would eventually revert to this point of view and reward Harris with their votes.
Pre-election polls show Democrats are not focused on inflation
In the final poll by YouGov, economist Before the election, 73% of Democrats said the Harris campaign was focusing on inflation “about the right way” (another 6% said Harris was talking too much about inflation). Only 15% of Democrats say they don't give enough weight to inflation. Compare this to the views of independents and Republicans. Thirty-one percent of independents said Harris was paying enough attention, while 49% said she wasn't paying enough attention. Only 1% said they were placing too much emphasis on inflation.
Among Republicans, 85% said Harris didn't focus enough on inflationOnly 9% said they were able to concentrate well.
Oddly enough, polls show a majority of Democrats think Trump should have focused more on inflation. Fifty-five percent said the survey does not focus enough on inflation, compared with 33% of independents and 15% of Republicans. Only 17% of Democrats say President Trump has done his due diligence on inflation, compared to 15% who say he has talked too much about it. a 42% are independent members Similarly, 78% of Republicans said President Trump's focus on inflation is mostly accurate.
We can probably ignore the finding that Democrats thought Trump should focus more on inflation. The most likely cause of this reaction is that Democrats are reluctant to say anything positive about Trump's campaign, and his focus is simply no longer on point.
Why have Democrats been so blunt about inflation? One possible reason is They just thought it wasn't that important in their life. Forty-one percent said inflation has had a “large” impact on them personally, compared to 56% of independents and 69% of Republicans.
When asked how much he expected inflation to be six months from now, Only 19% of Democrats expected inflation to rise further.33% expected inflation to decline. Among independents, the numbers were reversed, with 30% expecting inflation to rise and 17% expecting it to fall. Republicans are less likely than independents to be concerned about rising inflation, with 25% believing it will rise and 19% expecting it to fall.
Denial of inflation remains strong
Even now, post-election, Democrats seem to be underestimating the importance of inflation. When asked which of 14 different issues they think is most important to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, only 27% of Democrats said “inflation and the state of the economy.” This was chosen by 41% of independents and 52% of Republicans.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks with President Joe Biden during an event in the White House Rose Garden on September 22, 2023. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Additional note: Democrats seem to have a similar idea Out of sync with voters on immigration. Independents and Republicans ranked immigration as their No. 2 campaign issue, while Democrats ranked “racism and sexism,” billionaire influence, and misinformation at the top.
Exit polls showed that voters were most concerned about the economy. about 39% identified it as the most important issue That's influencing their votes, according to a Fox News Voter Analysis poll. Immigration was next, with 20% of voters citing immigration as their main concern, and abortion, chosen by 11% of voters.
Instead of facing the problem of high inflation and the weight that comes with it on the American people, Democrats tried to: distract and deny Throughout the election. This may have cost them an opportunity to persuade Americans to vote for a Democrat in the White House. And they still deny it.
