Almost half of the experts surveyed by the climate think tank believe that China's carbon emissions have already peaked or will peak in 2025. This reflects growing optimism about the country's green transition amid calls to take a leading position on global climate issues. action.
A report released Tuesday by the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA), a research institute, found that 44% of climate change experts in academia and industry believe that China's carbon emissions are: There is.2 Emissions will peak in 2025 at the latest. In last year's survey, only 21% of experts answered the same.
There is also growing optimism that China will reduce its dependence on coal. When asked whether they thought coal consumption had already peaked, 36% of experts said yes, up from 20% last year.
China's official goal is to reach a peak in carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The Chinese government also pledged to “strictly control” the use of coal during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which runs until the end of 2020. 2025.
coal account of It accounts for almost 80% of China's fossil fuel emissions.
“China already has plans to reduce coal consumption after 2026, but if China wants to reach its 2060 carbon neutrality goal, this reduction will need to occur quite significantly and quickly. “There is no doubt that it is,” said Wang Xiaojun, founder of People of Asia for Climate Solutions. A climate change NGO based in Shanxi Province, China's largest coal-producing province.
But leaders' concerns about energy security have grown after power outages in several parts of China in 2021 and 2022 and the instability of oil supplies caused by the war in Ukraine. , Wang said, meaning “China has not yet talked about phasing out coal.” . Energy experts argue that increasing the diversity of China's energy mix and improving its renewable energy infrastructure are also effective ways to ensure energy security without relying on backup coal-fired power plants. Despite the fact that
China is also a world leader in clean energy investment. previous analysis Clean energy contributed a record 11.4 trillion yuan (£154.4 billion) to China's economy last year, making it the biggest driver of GDP growth, according to Lauri Milivirta, chief analyst at CREA. It turns out.
Over the past two years, China has focused on rebuilding its post-COVID-19 economy by pivoting to high-tech, green industries. These are called the “new three” – solar panels, electric cars and batteries – and are attracting huge amounts of investment.
Shi Xunpeng, one of the authors of the CREA report, said: “The clean energy industry is emerging as a key driver of economic growth, and its benefits are becoming increasingly clear as China continues its transition.”
Analysts are also looking at whether China can reduce the carbon intensity of its economy, or the amount of carbon dioxide it emits.2 It is emitted to produce a single unit of power.
“To keep pace with the Paris Agreement…China needs to further accelerate the adoption of renewable energy or steer its economic development in the direction of lower energy consumption,” Milivirta said.
As a responsible country 90% of growth in CO2 Analyzing emissions from 2015 onwards, China's plans will shape the future of the global transition. But the country is generally conservative in its goals. Anders Hove, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Energy Institute, said: “It is unlikely that we will be able to quantify total emissions reductions, let alone commit to setting quantitative emissions targets that go beyond current policy.'' ” he said.
China's approach to climate change targets is as follows. If you can’t do it, don’t say it,” Hove said. “Many foreign leaders see value in ambitious goals, often rolling back when economic or political winds change, but this is viewed negatively on the Chinese side.”
