“The current situation requires all parties to remain calm and restrained and jointly seek de-escalation and strategic risk reduction through dialogue and consultation.” Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said:China's comments came a day after President Vladimir Putin approved a decree lowering the standards for a nuclear attack.
At first glance, it appears that the Chinese government is concerned about the escalation of the war in Ukraine. Although it is sometimes difficult to know exactly what China's leadership is actually thinking, leader Xi Jinping is almost certain to follow President Vladimir Putin's threat to use the most destructive weapons against Ukraine. is resisting.
why? There are two main reasons.
First, events over the past few years suggest that China fully supports Putin's war effort.
As a first matter, China gave the green light to invasion, as evidenced by the joint statement with Russia declaring an “unrestricted” partnership, issued on February 4, 2022, during the Russian leader's visit to the Chinese capital. issued.
This statement was issued just 20 days before the Russian attack. Although the attack could have been sooner, Putin clearly accepted China's wishes and waited until after the Beijing Winter Olympics to attack the former Soviet republic.
From the beginning of the war, Xi Jinping's government has kept Putin in the fight by providing diplomatic, propaganda, banking, economic, and lethal aid to Russia.
Furthermore, China has been dispatching military personnel to the area as “technical advisors” for about a year. “These advisors were responsible for maintaining the Chinese-provided drones that the Wagner mercenaries were deploying,” military analyst Brandon Weichert told me. “There are numerous reports of advisory groups being brought into battle against mercenaries.''
President Putin is bold. I think Mr. Xi considers Mr. Putin an indispensable partner. Because Mr. Putin is willing to do what Mr. Xi himself wants to do: disrupt the international system.
Mr. Xi has adopted a page from Mao Zedong's “peasant movement” strategy of promoting “chaos” to achieve global Chinese domination, and Mr. Putin is Mr. Xi's chaos maker. What better way to cause chaos than to threaten nuclear war?
China and Russia have become a de facto alliance because Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin see the world in the same light, express similar interests, and identify the same enemy: the United States.
China and Russia's ultimate ambitions are different – Putin seeks to reorganize the Russian Empire to the fullest extent possible, while Xi Jinping wants to dominate the world and near the solar system – but The conflicting goals of the two countries do not preclude cooperation between the two countries at this point. policy. Their forces are continually training for war, both on land and at sea.
Putin is so important to China that I think the Chinese leader believes that Russia needs to win in Ukraine and use all the weapons at its disposal if necessary.
Second, the Chinese regime has been making Putin-like threats itself for decades. The Chinese government has promised not to use nuclear weapons first, but it has threatened to do just that throughout this century.
For example, in July and September 2021, China Threatened nuclear attack on Japan for supporting Taiwanand Australia joins AUKUSa submarine-building coalition of Australia, the UK and the US In March 2022, the Chinese Ministry of Defense promised “worst outcomes” to countries helping to defend Taiwan.
Furthermore, throughout this century, China suddenly threatened to burn down AmericaThe most notable one was in October 2013. Afterwards, major outlets of the Communist Party and state media (especially People's Daily, China Central Television, People's Liberation Army Daily, etc.) reported how a Chinese submarine launched a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead on its tip and killed dozens of people. We published a similar article regarding the possibility of death. It reaches millions of Americans and also lists 11 cities it targets.
These articles were not the work of rogue journalists. These articles were published simultaneously across Chinese media, making it clear that they were directed from the top of China's political system. Apparently, this article was published less than a year after Xi Jinping became the country's ruler.
President Putin had the opportunity to observe China's nuclear threat. Would he really pull the trigger himself? To date, he has made so many threats that most observers believe he is simply bluffing.
President Putin's latest threat was made in retaliation for the Biden administration's decision to allow Ukraine to launch US-made ATACMS missiles into Russian territory. In fact, Ukraine carried out a similar attack on November 19, hitting an arms depot in the Bryansk region, about 110 miles from Russia.
Moscow immediately called the United States a combatant in the war, and as mentioned above, President Putin signed a decree lowering the standards for the use of nuclear weapons.
After Ukraine's ATACMS missile launch, Peter Hussey of the National Deterrence Institute told me, “You'll only know that Putin isn't bluffing when he actually detonates a nuclear weapon on our doorstep.” “But ultimately it will be too late to take his threats seriously.”
Would China's leadership be upset if President Vladimir Putin carried out and detonated a nuclear weapon? And what is China's position on the use of these weapons?
“China has not announced its true nuclear theory, but it actually advances the Chinese Communist Party's goals,” Richard D. Fisher Jr. of the International Center for Evaluation and Strategy wrote in an email message this month. He spoke at
“In Ukraine, the Communist Party has advised “calm'' and “détente'' in response to the Russian nuclear threat, but a Russian nuclear attack that would precipitate a larger nuclear disaster in Europe, the United States, and Russia. If there were, in fact all the parties would welcome it as well.''It seems much weaker than in China. ”
“China would then be freer to launch its own war of aggression,” Fisher said.
Gordon G. Chan is the author of Plan Red: China's Plan to Destroy America and China's Coming Collapse. Follow him on X @GordonGhang.
