President-elect Trump's victory is expected to result in the United States once again withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and withdrawing from global climate action more broadly.
Experts do not expect this to derail international efforts to combat global warming, but it will cede U.S. leadership on climate issues and technology and could lead to a decline in future international market leadership. It states that competitiveness may decline.
“We saw this film before when he pulled out of the Paris Agreement in 2017,” said Nat Keohane, director of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. “It's terrible for American interests, but I think we can get through the Paris process.”
new york timesreported this month that President Trump's transition team is preparing an executive order that would include withdrawal from a global agreement aimed at limiting global warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit.
Meanwhile, President Trump has also taken a broader protectionist stance, announcing new tariffs on Canada and Mexico this week.
During his first administration, President Trump called the Paris Agreement “an agreement that disadvantages the United States for the exclusive benefit of other countries, and that American workers and taxpayers, whom I love, will bear the cost of lost jobs.” The two parties withdrew from the agreement, calling it “an agreement that will lead to a Wages fell, factories closed, and economic output fell sharply. ”
But President Biden has rejoined the global agreement, stressing that climate change and workers' interests can go hand in hand. The administration has invested heavily in climate-friendly energy technologies, including through the Inflation Control Act.
Republican lawmakers now appear poised to recoup some of those investments under the incoming Trump administration, but it's unclear how much. Trump himself has called for an end to “insane wind subsidies.”
“The current administration is pushing for U.S. participation in technologies such as electric vehicles, carbon capture, and nuclear power, some of which will continue in the future,” said David Hart, senior fellow for climate and energy at the Council on Foreign Relations. It will be done,” he said.
Hart, who was also a staffer in the White House Office of Science and Technology, said he was “more concerned that the United States might withdraw from domestic investment than withdrawing from large-scale multilateral efforts such as the Paris Agreement.” I'm worried,” he said. Policies during the Obama administration.
He added that the result of such disinvestment would be to hand over to China “a large export sector that will help China establish a larger presence in many places.”
Joseph Majkat, director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, also said the U.S. could lose out in the global market for emissions reductions if it cuts back on investment in low-carbon technologies. said. .
“As countries and companies look to clean up their supply chains and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, market opportunities are emerging for low-carbon technologies and low-carbon production,” Magikt said. “If we can make low-emission steel, if we can make low-emission fertilizer, there is a lot of potential for exporting the underlying technology and the product itself.”
He also specifically pointed to the growing popularity of carbon border tariffs, which impose additional fees on high-emission products.
“In the short term, the United States will become very competitive,” he said. “We need to invest in long-term competitiveness to ensure we maintain that.”
And while experts don't necessarily expect the U.S. withdrawal from climate action to dismantle global efforts to combat global warming, it could still have some consequences. states.
Dan Lashoff, director of the U.S. branch of the World Resources Institute, said a broader U.S. disengagement could make it more difficult to pressure China, the world's biggest emitter, to take action. said.
He said China's potential to reduce emissions was a “key question” regarding whether the world could meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Rashov noted that the country is “committed to achieving a peak by 2030,” adding, “How high will the peak be in terms of the cumulative burden of heat-trapping pollution in the atmosphere and how much will we reduce emissions?” It is very important to see how rapidly the reduction can be achieved.”
“I think the United States has played a very important role over the past four years in encouraging China to act more ambitiously,” he added. The Union and other countries could also play a role. ”
Meanwhile, Jonathan Overpeck, a climatologist and chair of the University of Michigan's School of Environmental Sustainability, said a slowdown in U.S. emissions reduction efforts would hurt not only the U.S. but other countries through climate impacts.
“If the United States suddenly slowed down its efforts to stop climate change, it would of course have consequences for the entire planet,” he said.
