Among Democrats, there is a lot of blame being placed on the fallout from the 2024 presidential election. That's why they It fell right away A game of “what if”.
“If only we had Joe Biden. had fallen off Long before he did. ” “If only Vice President Harris was here.” Elected Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate. ” “If only I had a girlfriend I distanced myself more strongly and clearly. From Joe Biden. ”
Of course, looking back is a natural response to any catastrophic event. But the issues that emerge for Democrats in the 2024 election are not short-term or temporary events. If not addressed, it will haunt the Democratic Party for years to come.
Simply put, it's a party. Important parts of the base are alienated. Led by white progressives, the party has moved sharply to the left, but many people of color have not.
as CNN coverage“Since 2016, Latino voters, especially men, have been moving toward Donald Trump. This year, for the first time, Latino men tilted in his direction. In 2020, Biden won support by a 23-point margin. But in 2024, Trump gained support.Latinos still supported Harris, but by a smaller margin than they supported Clinton or Biden.
Additionally, fewer Black men supported Harris than Biden in 2020 or Hillary Clinton in 2016. Harris beat Biden among black women by three points, but six points less than Clinton received when she ran for president.
These trends were even worse among nonwhites without college degrees. The message they sent was that they wanted leaders to worry less about defunding the police and more about making sure police responded when they called. It focuses on table issues rather than hurting the feelings of minorities. It's not about comprehensive immigration reform, it's about the current border crisis.
That's why Democrats need to wrest power from progressives to get back on track, and the sooner the better.
But like Thomas Edsall of the New York Times, explainthis is not easy. “It will be difficult for the modern Democratic Party to break away from pandering to white progressive voters,” he said, quoting political scientist Sean Westwood.
The 2024 election results will throw cold water on widely held expectations that the United States will: Transition to a majority-minority countrywe will enter an era dominated by the Democratic Party. that expectation most clearly captured In a widely read 2002 book entitled “The Emerging Democratic Majority” by leading Democratic Party intellectuals John Giudice and Rui Teixeira.
Judith and Teixeira wrote at the time that “a center-left coalition of minorities, young people, women, and knowledge economy experts could help the Democratic Party break through the political deadlock that characterized the early 2000s, and perhaps… FDR Style Recalibration.”
their papers seemed to be vindicated in 2008 When Barack Obama was elected president. He “put together the very coalition that Judith and Teixeira described in the book.”
Mr. Giudice and Mr. Teixeira were not alone in predicting that Democrats would maintain a permanent majority. Columnist, writing after Obama's reelection Greg Sargent writes: “This election is all about demographics. Mr. Obama made the right bet about the nature of the American electorate.” Sargent added that his victory meant that “Republicans have not kept up with the changing face of America. It shows that,” he continued. He said the country “continues to be defined by minorities, young voters, college-educated whites and especially women.” As a result, he predicted the Democratic Party's advantage would continue.
But these confident predictions about the country's political fortunes embedded in its changing demographics called for caution. Regarding the future, Teixeira said: depends “It's about whether Democrats can give this coalition what they want and need.” The 2024 election results strongly indicate that the post-Obama Democratic Party has failed in its mission.
The red flags were there long before Trump defeated Kamala Harris. Nate Cohn role I wrote The prediction that Democrats would gain a new majority in 2022 failed to anticipate “decades of political division, a resurgence of populism, political reaction, and rising inequality.”
“Demographic changes rarely provide a path to political advantage,” Cohn said, adding that “changes in the economy, changes in the profile of candidates, mid-term terms, or being in power for too many years, etc. “It's easy to get overwhelmed by other factors.” ”
The dangers of thinking, as Cohn says, that “demographics are destiny” [is thinking] There is no need for the hard work of persuading voters and building broad and sometimes difficult coalitions. ”
However, I believe that the current dilemma faced by the Democratic Party is not simply a matter of effort. Rather, it stems from the fact that the party's ideology is no longer home to large numbers of voters of color.
that revealed in October This was revealed in a survey published by the Financial Times. Notable findings include the fact that 60 years ago, about 98 percent of ethnic minorities supported Democratic presidential candidates. This year, that number is down about 30%.
And, as time has shown, reported“The sharp leftward shift of educated white liberals has pushed white Democrats beyond minority status on a growing number of issues, including immigration, racism, patriotism, and meritocracy.'' .White progressive Americans currently hold views on these cultural issues that are completely divorced from the average black or Hispanic voter.
For example, nearly 80 percent of white progressives believe that “racism is built into our society,” but only 60 percent of blacks and 40 percent of Hispanics agree. . Alternatively, you can undergo immigration inspection. When asked whether the government should increase border security and enforcement, only 15% of white progressives agreed. By contrast, nearly 50 percent of Black and Hispanic voters support increased border security and enforcement.
Bottom line: Democrats need to compromise. with the facts Non-white voters said, “The distance between white progressives and white conservatives is now almost equal.'' This suggests that White Progressives' Key Concerns and Preferred Policies It will continue to drive voters of color to vote Republican long after President Trump is out of office.
After all, no “what ifs” about the 2024 election will help Democrats do what they need to do. The party must learn the hard lesson that demographic trends do not predict or guarantee political destiny. As the 2024 election results showed, identity is not a reliable predictor of political attitudes and behavior; it is a vague thing.
austin surrattWilliam Nelson Cromwell is a professor of law and political science at Amherst College. His views do not necessarily reflect those of Amherst College.
