As President-elect Donald Trump focuses on his first 100 days, House Republicans could enter the new year with a dangerously slim one-seat majority in the race for the 119th Congress.
Last-minute Republican defeats and defections in support of the new administration mean the party could begin the period with little room for dissent, with one congressional election likely resulting in one or two seats. A majority of the difference could be determined.
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House Speaker Mike Johnson could have a one-seat majority next year. (FOX News)
In California's 13th Congressional District, Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) is fighting for his political life against Democratic Rep. Adam Gray.
As of Monday afternoon, Mr. Gray led Mr. Duarte by a few hundred votes, a difference of about 0.1%. California law requires counties to certify election results by Dec. 5.
If Democrats flip their seats, the House will begin the new year with 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats.
But that number is expected to shrink even more with the resignation of three Republican senators. Now, former Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) resigned during the 118th and 119th Congresses while under consideration as President Trump's attorney general nominee.
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Congressman John Duarte is fighting for his political career in an uncertain House race. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (New York) has been selected as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and Rep. Mike Walz (R-Florida) has been named national security adviser.
All three members represent red districts, so there is little worry that their seats will fall into Democratic hands.
But with a special election scheduled for April 1 to replace Gaetz and Walz, and Stefanik's election not yet scheduled, Republicans have spent almost all of their first 100 days holding one House seat. could be used to gain a majority and control the center of power in Washington.
House Republican Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) dismissed concerns about his prospects of maintaining a one- or two-seat advantage in a recent television interview on Fox Business.
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House Majority Whip Tom Emmer dismissed concerns about the slim majority. (Steven Maturen/Getty Images)
“That's essentially what we went through in the better parts of last year,” Emmer told “The Bottom Line.”
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“I have to say, I don't care whether it's 222, 225 or 218. As long as we have a majority, we're going to vote for the American people by Donald J. Trump. We can work together.”
After all, there are few clear days between one- or two-seat majorities, but if the 118th Congress is any indication, this number is for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana). This creates a tricky political situation.
The close margins of House Republicans over the past two years have allowed various factions of the party to sometimes paralyze the chamber over disagreements over government funding and other key legislative battles.
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