After World War II, constitutional guardrails built into the French system and cracks in the national political structure left the country ungovernable, with the latest Macron government the shortest-lived in modern history. It is starting to look like a sliver.
We have an electoral system that produces adverse results, a constitution that prevents re-election, and a president who refuses to consider resigning no matter how bad the situation gets. France is in a constitutional and political crisis. How did we get here and what can we do? Is there anything we can do?
The French government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, which controlled day-to-day French government operations under the better-known President Emmanuel Macron, collapsed on Wednesday. The censure motion against him makes the political veteran, perhaps best known to readers for his hard-nosed role as the European Union's Brexit negotiator, the shortest-serving prime minister in modern French history.
The most whispered question now, brought about by the irreconcilable differences between Mr Barnier's centre-right impulse to impose austerity and the more populist sentiments of parliament, is undoubtedly 'What's next? '', but there are not many clear answers.
After all, France is hemmed in by its 1950s constitution, which was drafted to keep politics centrist and under establishment control; There seems to be no answer.
In many European systems, such political deadlocks can be resolved simply by holding new elections. If the existing parliament cannot function, decide on a new composition and thereby establish a new legitimacy for democratic voting.
But Mr Macron has already tried to consolidate his mandate with a disastrous snap election in June, which instead ended up further dividing parliament. One of these restrictive guardrails in the French constitution means that parliamentary elections can only be held once every 12 months at most. This was designed to prevent unscrupulous presidents from abusing the system by holding elections continuously until they get the results they want, but there are allowances built in in case Congress simply cannot govern. do not have.
Therefore, new elections will not be held until June 2025, and if the current parliament cannot form a new government, the current ministers will continue to serve, but in a purely interim role, and will be required to pass new legislation. I can't do that. The situation is stagnant.
French large sheet le figaro suggest The way to overcome this is for Congress to pass an amendment to Article 12 of the Constitution, giving Congress itself the right to vote in future elections, even over the president's head.
This is very similar to what happened in the UK after similar rules limiting the Prime Minister's powers were quickly found to be unconstitutional, leaving the UK ungovernable but with a path to new elections. It became a government that no longer existed. Eventually, Congress passed a new law overriding this rule and making snap elections possible again.
There is also the question of whether the real problem is Emmanuel Macron himself. It is perfectly clear from new opinion polls that a comfortable majority of French citizens hold Macron responsible for the chaos.
Although 59% say he should resign, Mr Macron has repeatedly said he does not feel responsible for what has happened and intends to serve out his term no matter how bad the situation is. And under the constitution, there is no mechanism to force him out.
But here's the kicker. Even if Macron relinquishes power, the fundamental problems that are causing this government chaos will remain the same. French constitutional experts say Jean-Eric Schottre In some ways, Macron is both a cause and a symptom, he says.
Both the new president and the new parliament will be elected by the same electoral system and by the same voters, but the former secretary-general of the Constitutional Council predicts that the new results will be equally unsatisfactory.
In short, he says, France remains “ungovernable.”
Again, the historical coincidences currently enshrined in the French constitution are also partly to blame. The country's electoral process is relatively unconventional, with a two-round knockout system. All participants attempt the first stage, and in most cases a handful of highest scorers advance to the second round of elections a week later.
This system is highly unbalanced and is a major source of confusion in Congress. In fact, it can produce truly remarkable results. In this year's elections, Marine Le Pen's populists came in first place in both referendums by large margins. However, it still ranked third in terms of seats won in parliament.. And since the two-round approach is aimed at eliminating non-establishment candidates, this is a feature rather than a drawback.
If a non-mainstream party form performs well in the first round, it could become the focus of an “anyone else” coalition of all other parties in the second round. This works as intended and has been used very effectively against Le Pen's populists for years.
Voting twice may have seemed crucial in the 1950s, but now, with the electorate divided and election results bearing little resemblance to how they voted, people are wondering how long it will last in the country's best interests. You will need to assess whether you feel that way. Again, this problem can be overcome with a constitutional amendment. Le Pen argues: previously supported — But by the time snap elections and changes to the voting system are introduced, France is effectively looking at the end of the Fifth Republic, none of which necessarily bodes well for President Macron, who is in power at the moment. It's not profitable.
As things stand, there is no end in sight anytime soon. Virtually all of France has decided that it wants change, but there is no widespread agreement on what that change should be, so no one powerful enough to seize power and rule Voters are being pulled in very fundamentally different directions, with no factions existing.
The left-wing New Popular Front has the most seats in parliament but receives fewer votes. Marine Le Pen's populist anti-mass immigration National Rally has the votes but is shut out by the electoral system. She is currently facing Trump-style legal proceedings and could be barred from holding public office in the future. The traditional conservative Republican Party is in such turmoil that no one really knew who its leader actually was at the time of the last election.
France needs change. Either French voters need a new way of thinking, a much more authoritarian approach that Macron hinted at in his emergency address to the nation on Thursday night, or constitutional reforms will relieve the pressure. For now, neither seems likely.
