I'm also hesitant to back James Franklin in a big game.
Franklin's team is 1-16 straight up against top-five teams and 5-12 against the spread. Franklin's Lions haven't won against a top-five opponent since October 2016, losing 11 straight on the road.
That being said, how “big” is the Big Ten championship game? Both teams are in the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome, with Oregon State being the No. 5 seed and the No. 12 seed in the first round. I don't know if they don't like playing against a seed and playing an ACC or Big 12 champion in the second round.
Either way, the matchup is favorable.
The Nittany Lions have pivoted to a more rush-heavy approach in recent weeks and should have no trouble running against a surprisingly weak Ducks rush defense. Oregon ranks outside the top 70 nationally in rushing allowed, rushing success rate, and EPA per defensive line yard.
If Penn State can run the ball, it will help keep Drew Allard out of obvious passing situations and neutralize Oregon's ferocious pass rush.
On the other side of the ball, Penn State's defense is elite at all three levels. The only way to beat the Lions is to make them over-the-top because they are weak against deep passing plays.
But Oregon isn't as explosive. Dillon Gabriel doesn't have the strongest arm and lives in the short-to-medium range area. His average depth of 7 yards ranks 148th out of 154 eligible FBS quarterbacks.
Gabriel also struggles heavily under pressure, so perhaps Penn State's equally deadly pass rush could force the Heisman candidate into some key mistakes.
choice: Penn State +3.5.
Texas (-3) vs. Georgia
Yes, Texas got bullied by Georgia in Week 8.
Nevertheless, there is enough evidence to believe the Longhorns will improve significantly in their first head-to-head performance.
First, there have been 54 instances in which teams that played each other in the regular season have faced each other again in the conference title game. Of the losers, 36 (67%) improved their score difference by an average of 7.7 points in the second meeting.
I also think the first head-to-head matchup was closer than the 30-15 score suggests. Georgia only outgained Texas by 24 yards, and Texas gained five more first downs. The battle for possession time was completely settled. The Horns were sunk by three lost fumbles and should have some luck in the second game.
More important to this handicap is Georgia's inconsistent play. Week-to-week effort has been an issue, with the Bulldogs consistently trailing early in games. They have the most dropped wide receivers in college football (36) and have a shockingly weak rushing defense, which doesn't bode well against the Longhorns' improving rushing defense. As a side note, keep an eye out for the Arch Manning package as the Bulldogs have a hard time containing mobile quarterbacks.
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Health is associated with disharmony. The Bulldogs have trouble running the ball and protecting Carson Beck, especially with their strong offensive line, and that doesn't bode well against the Longhorns' elite front seven.
last week: 1-2. Texas A&M (L), Vanderbilt (L), Air Force (W)
2024 season: 22-17.
