THe's double. At the end of the 7th set. Luke Littler is on 58 with two darts left but thinks he has 68. He hit a treble of 18. Understand what he did. It's right next door. Step up. He missed two doubles that would have given him a 5-2 lead in the World Championship final. Lose the next 5 sets in a row. Littler sometimes reflects on this game in his spare time, but this is the point where he has to switch off.
There's a good reason why those two doubles are considered the most famous dart mistakes in the history of the sport. Either that or the double 12 of Michael van Gerwen, who hit 17 perfect darts in the 2014 semi-final. Importantly, no one else has reduced this amount so quickly, to such a small amount. In the first year of his professional career, Littler threw – by rough estimates – around 30,000 darts in competitions. Most are quickly forgotten. But some people remember.
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The rise of the 16-year-old prodigy was the story of last season's world championships, and is perhaps one of the great underdog stories in sports. As Littler weathered the kind draw, a wave of hype and hope began to gather at his feet, elevating him to the most hallowed level of dart art ever dreamed of. There were tall tales and midnight kebabs, songs and memes, VIP selfies and a bleary-eyed slot on breakfast TV. Darts were cool. Darts are in. It was about darts. However, as a result of missing the double two, the story remains unfinished.
If you're someone who participates in this sport once a year, you've missed out on a lot. But the big outlines of the sport, the sweeping vistas and the mood music are essentially what we left on the night of January 3rd. There are two Lukes at the top. Then some clear water. And then everyone else too.
This is by no means a guarantee, given how much the definition of the sport has changed over the past five years. As an example, there were 11 first-time major winners in the 2010s (and none between 2012 and 2017). The past 10 years have already numbered 15 people, even though it's not even halfway through. The field of potential winners is wider than at any point in history. Now you can see the bar Littler and Humphries have set to clear them this year.
Humphries added the World Match Play and Players Championship final (his first successful major defense) to his four major successes last season, but his match with Dimitri van den Bergh for the British Open title I also missed a dart. He could lose every match between now and next summer and still be number one in the world. Equally important, he was a wonderful and energetic ambassador for the sport. He was generous with his rivals, honest about his shortcomings, and desperate to win without needing to win. His chest was about it.
And even the talented Humphries admits that no one can touch this kid tone-wise at this point. Littler, now 17, won the Premier League title in May with a nine-darter over Humphries in the final, and went on to dominate the World Series of Darts final and Grand Slam. He won his first Pro Tour, European Tour, and World Series titles. No other player in the world's top 50 can boast a record of head-to-head wins against him. “He plays the best darts,” Humphries said. “But that doesn't mean he'll win everything.”
And perhaps this was another theme of 2024 that was very interesting. It's pure chaos, beyond Littler and Humphries. Reputation is worth nothing. Gerwyn Price failed to make the last 16 at a major tournament and continued to drop cryptic hints about leaving the sport. Van Gerwen and Peter Wright finished the year with just one EuroTour title each. Michael Smith has had another terrible season and is on the verge of falling out of the world top 16. The foursome won 59% of the major titles from 2014 to 2023. None of this can be safely written off. But it feels like their days of dominance are over.
Meanwhile, a new name has joined the winner's circle. Crowd-pleaser Stephen Bunting scores his first big win at the Masters. High scoring Belgian Mike Dedecker won the World Grand Prix. Richie Edhouse started the year as a likable No. 58, best known for wearing a compression sleeve on his pitching arm. He scored a shocking victory at the European Championships, which was marked by carnage, and ended the tournament with a big win.
All of this raises pointed questions. Who is the current No. 3 player in the world? Littler thinks of Decker. Mr Humphries thinks of Mr Van Gerwen this way. You could probably make a strong case for Gary Anderson, who has put up crazy numbers on tour this year and pushed Littler all the way to the Hall of Fame semifinals at this year's Grand Slam. And the reason this is an especially urgent question is because due to changes in rankings and ties, Humphries and Littler are scheduled to meet in the semifinals.
Smith is the No. 2 seed, but most bookmakers don't even have him as a favorite to advance in the third quarter. The trending selection here is Wessel Nijman, a 24-year-old Dutchman who has had a stormy year on the Pro Tour after serving a 30-month suspension for match-fixing. Niziman has a burning talent, but his performances on the big stage so far have yet to justify the hype that has been poured on him. Meanwhile, Price, Chris Doby, Josh Locke, and Johnny Clayton all lurk in this section.
The bottom quarter appears to be the most open. Van Gerwen and Andersson could set up a juicy showdown in the last 16, but keep an eye on Martin Schindler, who won a double on this year's EuroTour. Van den Bergh is one of those players who can easily win back-to-backs, and no one is more popular than Dave Chisnall, who is still chasing his first major title after losing six finals.
In a star-studded top section that also includes Wright, Damon Heta and the resurgent Dirk van Duijvenbode, De Dekker and Bunting are likely to be Humphries' main threats. Littler's route to the semifinals will likely take him past Edhaus, Danny Knoppert and Rob Cross. Everything could trip him up. Still, even if Littler finds anything close to his best form in a long set-piece format, it's hard to imagine that actually happening.
In theory, Littler would beat all rookies for decades to come. However, this is not a machine sport, but a human sport with human weaknesses. A few weeks ago, at the 2025 World Championship presentation, I asked Littler if he was still thinking about the double-two from last year's final. The boy king took a deep breath. “Do you need anything?” he finally answered.
Probably not. Maybe last year's defeat was just a twist in the road, pre-empting the inevitable. Perhaps Humphrys is the Dennis Priestley of his time, a final roar of defiance against the oncoming storm. Littler can win five world titles, he can win 10, he can win 20. But the first title is always the most difficult.
