aAfter weeks of intrigue over a potential deal, the remaining members of the Bali Nine have been released from an Indonesian prison and returned to Australia. Five Australians are serving nearly 20 years to life in prison for their involvement in drug smuggling operations.
The legal basis for their return is not yet clear, as there is no prisoner transfer agreement between Indonesia and Australia. This is not surprising given that these types of agreements are notoriously difficult to negotiate due to disparities in sentencing for these types of crimes across countries.
But it is clear that the change of government from former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to the country's new leader Prabowo Subianto earlier this year was key to achieving the deal. There are three reasons for this.
A new president seeking trust
Jokowi was first elected in 2014 after campaigning on a “tough policy on drugs”. He stuck to this promise throughout his presidential term. refuse He gave leniency to drug offenders and encouraged police to shoot drug traffickers if they resisted arrest.
During this period, courts also imposed harsher sentences on drug offenders, resulting in many people (mostly Indonesians, of course) being sent to prison for relatively minor drug offenses. This led to a huge situation overcrowding Indonesia's prisons create deplorable conditions for prisoners and significant costs for the government.
However, despite these issues and pressure from many countries that imprison their citizens, especially Indonesia, Jokowi refused to change his position on the “war on drugs.”
And the very long negotiations to bring the remaining members of the Bali Nine home were doomed to failure while Jokowi remained president. This was perhaps most evident when two members of the group were executed under Prime Minister Tony Abbott.
What has changed since then is Mr Prabowo's election in February this year.
At first glance, given his reputation, it seems surprising that he would show mercy to Balifive. During his military service, former dictator Suharto (then his father-in-law) faced serious and credible allegations of human rights abuses by the forces he commanded in East Timor and Papua, which he denies.
In 1998, special forces under his command were also accused of abducting and torturing more than 20 student protesters, 13 of whom are still missing and presumed dead. Although Prabowo was never brought to trial, several of his subordinates were.
But when Prabowo ran for president for the third time this year, he went to great lengths to rebrand himself and distance himself from his controversial past.
In recent weeks, he has added some of the abductees to his political party, to his government – A result that was once unthinkable.
And part of this rebranding is to show mercy to foreign drug offenders serving heavy sentences, but this time it's aimed at an international audience.
Prabowo's international outlook
The move is dramatically different from Prabowo's predecessor, as Jokowi never considered allowing the Bali Nine to return home. It also puts him in a pretty good light internationally.
Unlike Jokowi, who was much more concerned with domestic issues and was clearly not a diplomatic president, Prabowo is very focused on Indonesia's place in the world.
We learned this from his active role in international forums during his time as Minister of Defence, and even mediate a contract To end Russia's war in Ukraine. Although this was unsuccessful, it reflects the fact that he considers himself a player on the world stage.
It was a very important factor in his decision to send the remaining members of the Bali Nine home. And they're not the only ones who benefit. It is also said that they are planning release A Filipino mother sentenced to death for drug smuggling, french prisoner of war Before Christmas.
Clearly, Prabowo sees this as a way to reset both Indonesia's relations with various countries and his own reputation. This will lay the diplomatic foundation for Prabowo to engage with the international community in a more constructive way. It also removes something that has often been frustrating for Indonesian diplomacy, especially when dealing with countries that have abolished the death penalty.
Change in tone from Australia
It is also significant that the Albanon Government is approaching these negotiations in a low-key manner, rather than asserting its position aggressively, as some Australian governments have done in the past.
There is little doubt about Abbott. very public request Indonesia's failure to execute two other members of the Bali Nine because of Australia's aid to Indonesia was counterproductive and sparked a backlash. This kind of megaphone diplomacy directed at Jakarta almost always backfires.
In contrast, the negotiations that ultimately led to the return of the remaining members took place behind the scenes and in extreme secrecy.
At the APEC summit in Lima, Peru, in November, secret one-on-one negotiations took place between Albanese and Prabowo. This was followed by a visit by Home Secretary Tony Burke to Indonesia and direct negotiations with Yusuru Isa Mahendra, Coordinating Minister for Law, Human Rights and Corrections.
These meetings were supported by extensive and low-profile work by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and ValiFive's Australian and Indonesian legal teams.
The terms of the agreement signed by Mr. Burke and Mr. Mahendra are not known. But the fact that it allowed five people to return home freely on Sunday is a reminder that this approach is much more productive and effective when dealing with Indonesia.
What does this mean for relationships?
The relationship between the Australian and Indonesian governments is long-standing and strong, and enjoys bipartisan support due to Indonesia's strategic importance to our southern neighbor. The weakness lies at the interpersonal level, which has been dramatically hollowed out over the years.
The Indonesian diaspora in Australia is small, and Indonesian studies in Australian schools and universities are limited. folded Over the past 40 years. In fact, they seem to be heading toward extinction.
Australian businesses remain reluctant to experiment with the risks and complexities of Indonesia's fast-growing economy, despite a free trade agreement between the two countries.
The only real point where our people can consistently engage is in Bali, the vacation island. More than 1.2 million Australians travel to Australia each year, but cheap package holidays are not a strong foundation for building lasting, meaningful relationships between two very different communities.
Many observers around the world are concerned about the kind of president Prabowo, who has a past as a military strongman and who has often publicly criticized Indonesia's inadequacy of democracy, will become. For example, his party Still an advocate On its website, it called for a return to the authoritarian 1945 Constitution.
But the BaliFive agreement made it clear to Prabowo very early in his presidency that he was an outward-looking president keen on global engagement. He believes Indonesia has fallen below its standards internationally under Jokowi, and he wants to change that.
So from a bilateral relationship perspective, this is a signal to Australia that Prabowo is open for business.
But if he starts working against democracy, bets will be off. This would create serious problems for bilateral relations, and even more serious problems for Indonesia.
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Tim Lindsay is Redmond Barry Distinguished Professor, Malcolm Smith Professor of Asian Law and Director of the Center for Indonesian Law, Islam and Society at Melbourne Law School. This article Originally published by Conversation
