There were multiple theories as to why voters were less receptive to the Democratic Party's message following the 2024 election, in which the party lost the White House and both houses of Congress.
new votePerhaps the clearest explanation comes from a study conducted by our firm, Shane Cooperman Research, in partnership with the George Washington University School of Political Science.
Our poll is the first post-election poll to specifically focus on trust in government, showing that while voters have less trust in government as a result of the election, they do believe that government is more effective and does better. It has become clear that we believe that we can accomplish this.
In other words, our poll suggests that Democrats ran the wrong campaign. They ran a “values campaign” focused on a government Americans could trust, but what voters really wanted was effective government, and they preferred Donald Trump.
In fact, a plurality (39%) of Americans say the results of the 2024 election have decreased their trust in government. Similarly, 41% of Americans say the election has made them less confident in the government's ability to share “fair and accurate information.”
Still, a majority (40%) of Americans believe that government will become more effective in getting things done in the future, while 36% of Americans believe that government will become less effective. There is.
The discrepancy is even more pronounced among independents, highlighting this voting group's desire for effective rather than reliable government.
By a 13-point margin (39% vs. 26%), independents say their trust in government has decreased rather than increased since the election. And by a similar 11-point difference (39 per cent to 28 per cent), they feel less, rather than more, confident that the government will share fair and accurate information going forward.
But at the same time, independents believe by a 10-point margin (39% to 29%) that the Trump administration will be more effective at getting things done going forward.
The 23-point difference between independents' net trust in the second Trump administration (-13) and their optimism that the Trump administration will be more effective than the Biden-Harris administration (+10) is significant.
In the context of the 2024 election, this gap means that while voters overall, and independents in particular, distrust the Trump administration, a significant proportion support the government they think will get things done. It's clear that you could have missed it.
Recent polls have also shown what could be called “cautious optimism” toward the Trump administration. CNN.
A majority of Americans (54%) say they expect Mr. Trump to do a good job when he returns to the White House, and a similar 55% say they expect Mr. Trump to do a good job when he returns to the White House. I support it.
Additionally, more than two-thirds (68%) of Americans feel President Trump can bring about change in this country, and pre-election polls consistently show that's what voters want. Ta.
While voters prioritized government effectiveness, our survey points to one very likely cause of the lack of trust in government and its communications. That means Americans are aware of the rise in misinformation and disinformation.
Our poll shows that nearly 7 in 10 (69%) Americans want “fair and true news during the 2024 election cycle” due to the rise in online misinformation and disinformation. I feel that it has become difficult to access.
Similarly, 71% were concerned about the role “deepfakes” played in spreading disinformation during the election.
In response to these concerns, nearly half of Americans (45%) say they don't trust the government or news organizations to provide fair and truthful news.
To that end, addressing declining trust in government and the media is made even more difficult by a highly fragmented media environment, which increases the need to communicate through an increasing number of mediums.
Three-quarters (76 percent) of Americans under 30 get their news from social media, while older adults overwhelmingly (84 percent) prefer television and get their information from social media. Just over a quarter (27 percent) have
Additionally, we found that even within social media platforms, where Americans turn for information varies greatly by age group. Roughly 6 in 10 (61 percent) Americans under 30 get their news from TikTok and 55 percent from Instagram, compared to just 8 percent and 10 percent, respectively, of Americans 65 and older. decreases to
Taken together, these findings demonstrate that what appears to be an endemic problem is difficult to resolve, and it is important that media and governments respond to the fragmented ways in which people consume news and information. It suggests that.
Four years ago, then-candidate Biden ran a values-based campaign. announced that he is running for office Because “the core values of this country…our very democracy…are at stake.”
In many ways, Vice President Kamala Harris ran a largely similar campaign. But this time, in stark contrast to the 2020 election, voters are more willing to do something about it than candidates who pledge to preserve or restore trust in institutions that Americans no longer have faith in. He was interested in a government that could.
After all, our post-election polling reveals that voters are prioritizing perceived effectiveness over defending democracy in this election. Voters are generally very skeptical of our institutions, but we are cautiously optimistic that the next administration will effectively deliver real-world solutions.
Douglas E. Shawn and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners at the New York-based polling firm Shawn Cooperman Research. They are co-authors of the book “''.America: Unite or Die.”
