Texas is heading into a tumultuous 2025, with simmering feuds within the state's ruling coalition threatening to boil over in the upcoming legislative session.
The power struggle within the Texas Republican Party is occurring alongside a new wave of challenges for the state, from the burgeoning water crisis to the state of the power grid. All of these challenges will play out in President-elect Trump's return to the White House. 2025 could be a double-edged sword for Austin's allies.
From the battle for state Republican leadership to whether marijuana will remain legal in Texas, here are four big issues to watch in the new year.
Who will win in the state Republican power play?
The tight race between incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and challenger Rep. Colin Allred (D) has captured the attention of national observers this election cycle, but Texas' ruling Republican Party Even more dramatic battles are taking place within the Union.
The fight last year saw state administration officials, including Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Attorney General Ken Paxton, try to purge Texas Republicans who had rebelled against them.
Their goal is to create relatively bipartisan collegiality and collegiality, albeit still dominated by conservatives, at a time when state legislatures are increasingly dominated by so-called MAGA Republicans allied with President Trump. It is control of the lower house of parliament, which stands as a bastion of independence. Supporters.
Officials' efforts were overwhelmingly successful in resisting Mr. Abbott's school aid push and replacing incumbent House candidates who voted to impeach Paxton. And in December, Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan (R) announced that the candidate chosen by state party leaders had largely won the November election. By barely surviving, Mr. Abbott and his allies achieved their biggest victory to date. Seat — He announced he would not seek re-election to the top seat in Congress.
However, Mr. Phelan's withdrawal did not mean the end of the civil war. The involvement of Abbott, Patrick, and Paxton in the business of the House of Commons, and the fact that they spent large amounts of money to oust members who were primarily loyal to them, left many bitter feelings in their wake.
The Texas Republican Party is currently divided into two factions, each declaring victory in the speaker's race and a different path forward for the party. Mr. Phelan's primary challenger, state Rep. David Cook (R), who is supported by the far-right “reform” wing of the Republican Party, has broken the practice of awarding committee chair positions to Democrats and is pushing for significant legislation. I would like to pass this.
Meanwhile, state Rep. Dustin Burrows (R), a former state deputy, wants to take a more cautious approach to vouchers and maintain the House's current bipartisan nature. Burrows claims he has enough votes to become speaker with Democratic support, but the state Republican Party is threatening any lawmaker who supports him with the ability to become speaker. Deprived of party identification and support.
No matter who wins, this election is likely to be steeped in bad blood in Congress, just as Texas will have to face a wave of serious new challenges.
What would happen if the White House stopped fighting Texas on immigration?
Texas Republican leaders spent the Biden administration openly opposing the federal government and Democratic-run localities on immigration and slamming state leaders like Mr. Abbott. Opposes White House asylum policyis challenging the administration over its control of the state border with Mexico and the busing of migrants to cities in the northeast.
These efforts garnered national attention for the Texas governor and helped raise national concerns about immigration. But the policy impact appears to have been limited, as the Biden administration pursues its own approach to immigration and opposes many of Mr. Abbott's moves.
The arrival of Mr. Trump, an ally of Mr. Abbott, in the White House signals a major shift in federal immigration policy, and could raise the possibility of how Texas could respond on the issue. Texas authorities provide access to: 13 million acres of federal land It provided concentration camps for the incoming Trump administration, which operated on a platform of mass deportation. The condition is also fight in court Implementing its own deportations — if successful, it would effectively become the first state to establish its own immigration policy.
The possibility of such deportations fuels fearNot just among undocumented Texans.,but also,rely on them– especiallyin fields such as constructionbut the same is true for agriculture and oil and gas. Illegal worker provides estimated amountNet value of more than $11 billionAccording to the state economyOne of our analyzes of 2016.
These concerns have led some state Republicans to call for vigilanceaccording to the Texas Tribune. In November, Rep. Tony Gonzalez (R) warned that mass deportations are bad policy coupled with bad politics. “If the message is, 'We're here to deport your abuelita,' that's not going to work,” Gonzalez said. told ABC News. “This must hold these hardened criminals accountable.”
But Mr. Gonzalez is something of an outlier among the state's Republican Party, which has criticized him for voting Democratic. Members of the U.S. House of Representatives, such as Rep. Chip Roy (R), oppose him on this point. Who told Fox Business He wanted to widen the net of deportations, starting with people who entered the country after 2020.
“They need to be removed. They need to be deported. That's the starting point,” Roy said. “Congress is going to have to help.” [Trump] And frankly, I don't want to hear excuses from my Republican colleagues. ”
How will Texas address the energy and water crisis fueled by rapid growth?
Texas' cities and suburbs are growing rapidly, and the state now boasts 6 out of 10 cities. Fastest growing county In the United States, and gained more residents than any other state in 2023.
But that increase puts the state's most populated areas on a collision course with impending water and, potentially, power shortages. Texas' agriculture commissioner has warned that large swaths of the state are “running out of water,” and power grid managers are warning of a 2021-type freeze. will lead to power outage It's similar to the one that knocked out power to millions of homes and businesses that year and led to the deaths of hundreds of Texans.
Soaring demand and tight supplies for water and electricity are perhaps the biggest long-term issues facing Texas infrastructure and governance, and are likely to be the most important issues in the state's 2025 legislative session, which begins next month. .
Regarding water, all eyes are on an upcoming bill introduced by Lubbock-area state senator Charles Perry (R). warned that the condition is short It proposed creating a state “water grid” modeled after the electric grid, which would require about 10 million to 11 million acre-feet of water, about twice the amount currently used by cities.
Meanwhile, those seeking to strengthen the power grid are divided over several different approaches. Promoted by power companies and cleantech industry groups Aiming for more grid-scale batteries Helping Texas store abundant renewable energy. The Abbott-aligned faction is encouraging the construction of more gas plants, regulators say. I can't believe it helps stabilize the grid; and some federal officials and lawmakers are seeking ties to Texas. Isolated grid to other parts of the country.
Debate over the future of the state's power grid has intensified with recent memories of extended power outages in the Houston area this summer that left millions of homes without power amid sweltering temperatures and widespread bipartisan anger at the state. There is a high possibility that it will. Critics charge that the power system allows major power companies to reap billions of dollars in profits from desperate customers during a crisis.
Who will win the state's culture wars over schools, abortion, LGBTQ rights, and marijuana?
When the 2025 Texas legislative session begins in mid-January, lawmakers will be faced with a slew of bills on hotly debated issues.
The key battle will be over Mr. Abbott and Mr. Patrick's long-standing quest to pass a school voucher program. Abbott is aiming to pass the program despite ongoing opposition to voucher opponents within the state's Republican Party this year.he says he needs to vote now.
However, some opponents remain in parliament and are likely to fight on the issue. They advocate Abbott's plan to allow families to use the money the state spends on education to send their children to private schools. would effectively cancel the funds Many public schools in Texas.
One such opponent, state Rep. Ken King (R), has all but conceded defeat, at least in the grand scheme of blocking voucher reform altogether. In a Texas Tribune panel discussion in September, Dr.urged fellow voucher skepticsTo “get the best deal we can, protect our public schools the best way we know how, and have some accountability for it.”
A fight over Texas' strict abortion laws is also likely, the state's obstetricians and gynecologists say. prevent them from giving Medical care that protects life and health, and what ProPublica's reporting suggests caused at least three deaths.
Rep. Donna Howard, D-Austin, has introduced a bill that would strengthen protections for doctors.perform an abortion deemed medically necessaryOn the other side of the aisle, state Rep. Steve Toth (R) is reintroducing a bill to allow Paxton.prosecute abortion-related crimes.
A similar complaint was made by the Texas Republican Party after a national Senate race in which Mr. Cruz's closing speech focused on the fantastical threat of naked men in high school girls' locker rooms. Dozens of anti-trans billsaccording to the Dallas Observer.
These include new legislation that would require people to use the bathroom according to their biological sex. Proposals to require school officials to tell parents if their children are wearing clothing “inconsistent with the student's biological sex” and to ensure that high school athletes share the same biological sex as their teammates. This includes legislation that would require blood tests to do so.
But one of Sessions' biggest upcoming battles, and one where the partisan lines are much more blurred, will likely be over Patrick's push for prohibition. Sale of intoxicating cannabisit has certainly been legalized in certain cases at the federal level since Republicans legalized the hemp industry in the 2018 omnibus farm bill. Texas Monthly investigation finds marijuana is indistinguishable from that available in legal states It was openly sold throughout Texas.often to a level that violates state law. (California has a recreational marijuana program, and by 2024 moved to ban the sale of such productssold as “hemp”. )
Cannabis lobbyists familiar with the matter told The Hill that Mr. Patrick's push to ban unregulated cannabis products is an important step in the state's health care system, which covers millions of Texans with chronic pain. He said it's the price to pay for expanding the cannabis program while eliminating a major competitor for the state's highly regulated cannabis products. medical program.
But Congress needs to fight the industry to get this deal passed. worth at least $8 billion Not just in Texas, but in states where we have a lot of friends in the Republican coalition. In contrast, a competing long-term bill would create a regulated recreational cannabis industry similar to those operating in states like California and Colorado.
