Lobbyists will have their hands full with several major legislative battles scheduled for the early days of the second Trump administration.
When President-elect Trump takes office on January 20, he is poised to disrupt normal business in Washington and limit U.S. imports that could hurt foreign allies and adversaries, as well as companies using international supply chains. They are threatening to impose heavy tariffs.
The Republican-controlled Congress also has two budget adjustments that would allow it to pass legislation with a simple majority to strengthen border security amid Trump's immigration crackdown and extend and build on Trump's 2017 tax cuts. Preparations are underway to submit the bill.
“The question for all businesses and industry groups is: Are you in the top three on a Republican's must-have list? Having a strong following will be the difference between success and disappointment in 2025.” said Lauren Monroe, principal at BGR Group.
Congress has also blocked a five-year farm funding package known as the Farm Bill for two years. Republicans have been pushing for cuts to nutrition programs to free up more money for farmers whose livelihoods have been disrupted by high prices and extreme weather, but Vince Hall, director of government relations for Feeding America, said this He points out that it was a “wrong choice”.
And while a bill to dismantle the so-called Visa-Mastercard duopoly failed again, the long-running battle between banks and retailers over credit card swipe fees is expected to continue. has been 119th meeting.
customs duty
Full new tariffs on U.S. imports were a central focus of the Trump campaign, but economists warn they could drive up prices as companies pass costs on to consumers and exacerbate inflation. Reacted to the backlash.
Since his election, he has imposed a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada over border security and threatened to impose additional tariffs. 10 percent customs duty Forced China to impose “the highest penalty of death” on drug traffickers for Chinese goods entering the United States.
During his campaign, he threatened to impose a 60% tariff on imports from China.
But Trump is ultimately a “dealer,” the legal and lobbying giant Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld wrote in a paper. Post-election analysis“The threat of basic tariffs could also be used to negotiate mini-agreement,” the report said.
“This could include new sectoral agreements that seek to work with allies and partners to diversify key supply chains away from China, including semiconductors, critical minerals, and medical supplies. ''Akin said.
immigration
President Trump's controversial immigration policies became a hallmark of his first administration. He has promised an even more ambitious crackdown during his second term, including the largest deportation operation in history.
But his policies face obstacles, including potential legal challenges and pressure from major farm groups and business leaders who rely heavily on immigrants, including those in the country illegally, for their labor.
Bruce Mellman of Mellman Consulting said of the issue, “Business is all over the world.''
“For some this is an existential risk, for others it's a broader concern about social disruption, and for others it's not immediately on the threat map yet,” Melman said. .
Tech leaders including Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Sriram Krishnan, President Trump's incoming senior policy adviser for artificial intelligence, also announced green cards for skilled immigrants amid President Trump's immigration crackdown. has proposed eliminating caps on Americans, prompting a backlash this week from President Trump, an ardent far-right activist. Supporter of Laura Loomer.
Lobbyists for the Republican-led shop AxAdvocacy highlighted another risk on The Hill: a fight over border wall funding could lead to a government shutdown in March.
tax
Senate Republican leaders announced plans this month to prioritize border funding and hold tax reform for a second round of reconciliation, but they believe passing the long-awaited tax plan will take longer than expected. This greatly disappointed tax lobbyists.
President Trump's populist campaign promises, including a tax exemption on tips, could complicate the process, especially as Republican leaders steer a small but powerful coalition of deficit hawks in the House of Representatives. This could make it even more difficult for Republicans' business allies to advance their priorities.
“The majority's goals of simplifying the tax code and pushing for lower federal deficits will jeopardize corporate tax priorities unless there is a champion in Congress to stand up for them. “It's going to empower them to fight for their vote,” Monroe said.
Some provisions of President Trump's 2017 tax cut bill do not expire until the end of 2025, but tax lobbyists say the delay will hamper tax reform efforts and create uncertainty for businesses and individuals to plan for next year. warned that it could lead to
“If you're a small business owner trying to decide whether to invest and you don't know if it's going to be an expense in a year, you shouldn't invest now,” said founder Grover Norquist. Chairman of Americans who promotes tax reform.
agricultural bills
Congress included a second consecutive one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill in its year-end funding package.
The Farm Bill funds agriculture and nutrition programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which typically accounts for the largest share of Farm Bill funding.
Republicans are proposing cuts to nutrition programs and conservation funding under the Inflation Control Act to free up more money for farmers hit by high prices and extreme weather. But anti-hunger advocates such as Feeding America, a nonprofit network of 200 food banks, were lobbying in defense of nutrition programs even before the election.
Feeding America strongly supports nutrition programs such as the Emergency Food Assistance Program (TEFAP) and the Commodity Supplemental Food Program (CSFP), which provides monthly food boxes to low-income seniors. But they also fight for the farmers they work with.
“We can't solve hunger without food, and America's farmers have had deep and meaningful partnerships with food banks for more than 50 years,” said Hall, Feed America's chief lobbyist.
“We hope Congress will move beyond the false choice between farmers and nutrition programs, because this country needs to address its pressing and worsening hunger problem. Because we absolutely need both.”
exchange fee
There has been a lot of uproar in this Congress over the Credit Card Competition Act. The bill was supported by retailers and condemned by banks.
The bill would require large financial institutions to offer at least two payment processing network options to process credit card options, one of which cannot be Visa or Mastercard. Together, the two companies control 80% of the market, which critics call a “duopoly.”
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), one of the bill's sponsors, said the Credit Card Competition Act is intended to give retailers options. The National Retail Federation (NRF), one of the bill's biggest proponents, says interchange fees are the highest operating cost for most retailers after labor costs.
“This finally gives small businesses a real choice: route credit card transactions through the Visa or Mastercard network and avoid interchange fees, which often rank as the second or largest expense. You can continue to pay or you can choose a lower-cost alternative,” Durbin said in a hearing with the CEOs of Visa and Mastercard last month.
However, despite Senate leadership promising a vote on the bill last summer, the bill was not introduced before the legislative session adjourned.
Richard Hunt, executive director of the Electronic Payments Coalition, which represents Visa, Mastercard and other banks and credit unions, objected to the term “swipe fee” when asked by The Hill about the next steps in the legislative fight. chanted.
He also expressed confidence for the upcoming fight.
“In 2024, they threw everything at us and the kitchen sink. In short, to your question, are we prepared for what they're going to throw at us next year?” “It's done,” Hunt said.
