CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten analyzed House Speaker Mike Johnson's chances of winning re-election and taking the gavel in Friday's segment.
The House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on whether Mr. Johnson will remain in office in the 119th Congress, where his chances are the narrowest in more than 100 years. Enten said that if two House Republicans and all Democrats vote against Johnson, or if one House member votes against him and two abstain, Johnson will become speaker. He said he would lose his seat.
“It's simple math. We went through it yesterday and it feels like déjà vu all over again when it comes to these speaker races,” Enten said. “Look, it's simple math. In scenario one, if only two Republicans vote against Mr. Johnson, and only two Republicans vote against him, 434 members would vote. , assuming that the Democrats do not vote against Mr. Johnson, can sink Mr. Johnson's Speaker run in Scenario 1. He does not win the Speaker position. What about if one person votes against him and two abstain, or vote present, that would also deny Mr Johnson the chairmanship?
“Look, we're dealing with a historically slim majority. It's the narrowest margin to go into a speaker's vote this early in Congress since 1917. And the bottom line is, the calculus is very tough.” continued Mr. Enten.
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Representative Thomas Massie, Republican of Kentucky, has vowed to vote against Johnson in the next speaker vote, which would jeopardize his chances of being re-elected. Republican Reps. Victoria Spartz of Indiana and Chip Roy of Texas also expressed serious concerns about Johnson as a speaker. (Related: Mike Johnson remains in danger as some House Republicans remain unconvinced after endorsing Trump)
Mr Enten said Mr Johnson had a 35% chance of winning the chair on the first vote and a 90% chance of winning the chair at some point throughout the voting process.
“That’s why [Johnson] Just because you lose on the first vote doesn't mean you can't win on the second, third, etc.,” Enten said. “If Johnson wins at some point, that's 90%. It's not 100%, but it's much more likely than not. So even if Johnson loses on the first ballot, he'll ultimately win. That doesn't mean it won't, but it seems most likely.”
Mr Massey has been a fierce critic of Mr Johnson, who was working with House Democrats on a huge spending bill just before the Christmas break. Specifically, he voted in April for Republican Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's motion to remove Johnson from office, but lawmakers rejected it by a vote of 359-43.
No other Republicans have publicly announced plans to challenge Johnson for speaker.
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