Featured matchups: Buffalo Offense vs. Denver Man Coverage
In my opinion, this is the most interesting match of the weekend. Buffalo and Denver share many strengths, but a collision course between arguably the best defense in the NFL and one of the most complementary offenses in the NFL could be the best matchup of the weekend. The Broncos play a lot of man coverage. In fact, the Broncos are third in the NFL in total man coverage snaps, according to SIS.
After Broncos DC Vance Joseph added cornerback Riley Moss to the lineup, their secondary took off, feeling comfortable playing man coverage and being creative against pressure. I recommend the Bills not throw to CB Patrick Surtain II. Because when you get the best corner in the NFL, you often get paid. Couple that with a pass rush unit with a variety of ways to win, and you have a stew. Not only does this help in the passing game, but he thrives in so many man coverages. Cover 1 in particular allows you to gap out in the run game and play faster downhill. This is already a problem for opposing offenses because of DT Zach Allen. And DJ Jones was Bebop and Rocksteady in the middle of that defense. Despite playing a little light on the edge, the Broncos are 4th in the NFL against the run due to poor plays such as:
But the problem lies in the fact that the Bills and Josh Allen have shredded man coverage this year. According to Sumer Sports, Allen is seventh in the NFL in success rate vs. man coverage, and the Bills as a whole are very good against coverage, which makes sense against teams that don't have a lot of consistent separators on the field. I'm finding many answers. But what really sets it apart is that Josh Allen is much more against male coverage. His 9.6% scramble rate is not only third in the NFL among passers with 100 attempts against the man, but it's also a huge jump from his 6.5% scramble rate against zone coverage. You might think it wise to scramble against the Broncos when they are in man coverage, but in total they are only allowing a 47.1% success rate on QB scrambles. So how can we beat this team?
Bills OC Joe Brady has put a lot of effort into getting his running backs involved in the passing game, especially against man coverage. SIS records Allen making 18 attempts against running backs against man coverage. In those attempts, he threw 4 TDs on 15/18 for a positive play rate of 77.8%. When RB Ty Johnson made a play like this against Detroit, Brady used a man-or-zone motion and ran a rail route against a slower LB to leak Johnson into the backfield. Watch how the run fake holds the linebacker long enough for Johnson to leak out and stomp the linebacker.
Denver's defense is incredible, but if there's a weakness, it's that it ranks 31st in DVOA against passes to running backs. It could end up being a big game for Ty Johnson, as linebackers will be hung out to dry against good receiving backs when there's a lot of man coverage. Denver linebackers Justin Strnado and Cody Barton will have to play their best games in man coverage Sunday. Because you better believe the Bills have all the answers.
Featured individual matches: Bills WR Khalil Shakir and TE Dalton Kincaid vs. Broncos CB Jaquan McMillian, safety PJ Lock, and safety Brandon Jones
