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“We have been told that it’s now just a question of dotting the Is and crossing the Ts,” Julian Borger said. “But we have been here before.”
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“There appears to have been a breakthrough overnight on Monday,” Julian said. “We don’t know exactly what that was about. Previously, the speed and extent of Israel’s withdrawal has been a sticking point.”
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Donald Trump’s return has changed the calculus on Israel’s side. “We’ve had at least eight months of counterfactuals,” Julian said. “Because the far right always threatened to bring down Netanyahu, the logic has pointed to no deal. But the imminence of Trump’s return is an X factor here.”
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Here’s what is in the prospective deal, according to a draft seen by Reuters yesterday:
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Hostage return: The first stage, lasting 60 days, would see 33 hostages held in Gaza – children, women including female soldiers, men older than 50, the wounded and the sick – freed gradually over a six-week period in return for the release of around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.
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Troop withdrawal: Israel would begin a phased pull-back of its troops and leave parts of the Philadelphi corridor that runs along the border between Gaza and Egypt.
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Movement within Gaza: Unarmed residents would be allowed back into north Gaza, and the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza would begin a gradual reopening.
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Aid: The Israelis would also start to let more desperately needed humanitarian aid into Gaza. The Associated Press reported that this could be about 600 trucks a day. At the beginning of January, only about 50 aid trucks crossed into Gaza each day, Unrwa said on Sunday.
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Second phase: On the 16th day of the first phase, and if everything has gone to plan, talks would start on a second stage that would see more hostages – including male soldiers and younger civilian men – released, as well as the bodies of those who have died in captivity, in return for further Israeli concessions, which the draft suggests could include the “complete withdrawal” of the IDF from Gaza.
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You can read more of Archie Bland’s conversation with Julian Borger here: What a Gaza ceasefire might look like
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Sign up for our free daily news email First Edition
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“,”elementId”:”990b6f25-f37f-40a5-8370-6eeff553c6fe”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1736926177000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.29 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1736926977000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”: “02.42 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1736926977000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.42 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.42″,”title”:”What we know about the terms of the anticipated Gaza ceasefire”,”contributors “:[{“name”:”Archie Bland”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2022/04/19/Archie-Bland-2-R.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=e7db713e45f9e962c1c6d71f0b40c05e”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2022/04/19/Archie_Bland_2_R.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=d6ef0a0e373eb753228e899d2ed176c1″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Wednesday 15 January 2025 02.42 EST”,”SecondaryDateLine”:”First published Wednesday 15 January 2025 02.28 EST”},{“id”:”678762048f08cb23ad2f0472″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
In an operational update, Israel’s military on its official Telegram channel, has claimed that yesterday it struck “more than 50 terrorist targets across the Gaza Strip, including terrorist cells, weapons storage facilities, underground infrastructure, anti-tank fire positions, and Hamas military structures.”
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Israeli military helicopter lands in northern Gaza as seen from Israel.”,”caption”:”An Israeli military helicopter lands in northern Gaza as seen from Israel. “, “credit”:”Photo: Amir Cohen/Reuters”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Al Jazeera reported on Wednesday morning that the death toll from overnight Israeli attacks in Gaza had reached 24 people, including two who were recently reported dead. Khirbet al-Adas Area north of the city Rapha”
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at Auda Hospital in Gaza City mourn loved ones killed in the Israeli attack on the Nuseyrat refugee camp on January 15.”, “caption”:”Palestinians at Auda Hospital in Gaza City
On January 15th, we remember the loved ones who died in the Israeli attack on the Nuseyrat refugee camp. “,”credit”:”Photo: Anadolu/Getty Images”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true ,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1736926096000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay “:”02.28 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1736926890000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.41 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1736926890000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.41 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.41″,”title”:”Israeli forces attack Gaza as 24 Palestinians reported killed as IDF claims to have attacked more than 50 'terrorist targets'” ,”contributor”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wednesday 15 January 2025 02.42 EST”,”SecondaryDateLine”:”First published Wednesday 15 January 2025 02.28 EST”},{“id”:”6786f99b8f082981ff8d45ea”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has said negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza were “right on the brink” as the warring sides were reported to be closing in on a deal. Envoys representing the Biden White House and the incoming Trump administration have been taking part in what was billed as a “final round” of talks on Tuesday, meeting delegates from Israel, Egypt and Qatar.
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Blinken indicated that Israel had agreed to a deal and that mediators were now waiting for a response from Hamas. “It’s closer than it’s ever been before,” he said. “But, right now, as we sit here, we await final word from Hamas on its acceptance, and until we get that word, we’ll remain on the brink.”
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The Associated Press on Tuesday evening reported that Hamas had accepted the draft agreement for a ceasefire and the release of hostages, citing two anonymous sources involved in the talks. That information has not been confirmed by the group publicly and an Israeli official told the news agency that details of the agreement were still being finalised.
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Israeli media and reports from the Qatari capital said the agreement would involve an initial release of 33 Israeli hostages, including children, women, elderly people and the sick, and up to 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, alongside a partial Israeli troop withdrawal in a first phase lasting 60 days.
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Hamas earlier said the talks had reached the final steps and that it hoped this round of negotiations would lead to a deal. An Israeli official said talks had reached a critical phase although some details needed to be hammered out: “We are close, we are not there yet.” The militant group Islamic Jihad said it was sending a senior delegation that would arrive in Doha on Tuesday night to take part in final arrangements for a ceasefire deal.
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A deal had not yet been clinched on Tuesday night despite more than eight hours of talks in Qatar. A senior Hamas official told Reuters that his group was awaiting documents from Israel that would give more details of the geographical area covered by a ceasefire. A Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson said earlier on Tuesday that talks on the final details were under way after both sides were presented with a text.
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Hopes rose across Gaza that the war that has devastated the territory, killing more than 46,000 according to the Hamas-led health ministry and displacing millions, was finally coming to an end. Residents of the embattled territory expressed mixed emotions: hope and fear for the future but pain and grief for the past 15 months. Optimism over the negotiations has been tempered by past experience after earlier apparent breakthroughs ultimately failed in the face of opposition from the coalition government of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, or obstruction from Hamas inside Gaza.
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Fighting in Gaza has continued in recent days despite reports of an imminent ceasefire. Israeli airstrikes on homes in the Gaza Strip killed at least 17 Palestinians, health officials said Tuesday. Earlier strikes in Gaza killed at least 18 people, including two women and four children, according to local health officials, who said one woman was pregnant and the baby died as well.
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Blinken, in an outgoing speech at the Atlantic Council, outlined a vision for a postwar settlement under which Israel would accept a united leadership of Gaza and the West Bank territories under a reformed Palestinian Authority. Israel has so far rejected those conditions. He also spoke about significant involvement from the international community and Arab countries, including the possibility of deploying troops to stabilise security and facilitate humanitarian aid delivery. Blinken’s speech was interrupted several times by protesters.
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“,”elementId”:”bd3c5f7e-f148-430f-bb87-7f74788b3e03″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:false,”summary”:true},”blockCreatedOn”:1736926096000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.28 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1736926090000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”: “02.28 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1736926096000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.28 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.28″,”title”:”Ceasefire and hostage release agreed on 'brink' as hopes for deal grow.” ,”contributors “:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wednesday 15 January 2025 02.42 EST”,”SecondaryDateLine”:”First published Wednesday 15 January 2025 02.28 EST”}],”filterKeyEvents”:false,”id”:”key-events-carousel-mobile”,”absoluteServerTimes”:false,”renderingTarget”:”Web”}”>
main events
What we know about the terms of the anticipated Gaza ceasefire agreement
archie brand
In today's inaugural newsletter, my colleague Archie Brand discussed the prospects for a peace deal with Julian Borger, the Guardian's senior international correspondent:
“We are now being told that the only problem is getting across the islands and crossing the TS,” said Julian Borger. “But we've been here before.”
“It looks like we had a breakthrough Monday night,” Julien said. “We don't know exactly what it was. Until now, the bottleneck has been the speed and extent of Israel's withdrawal.”
Donald Trump's return has changed Israel's calculations. “We've had a counterfactual for at least eight months,” Julien said. “The far right has always threatened to overthrow Prime Minister Netanyahu, so logically they point out there is no deal. But the impending return of President Trump is the X-factor here.”
The future agreement, according to a draft seen by Reuters yesterday, is as follows:
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return of hostages: The first phase lasted for 60 days, during which 33 hostages held in Gaza (children, women, including female soldiers, men over 50, wounded and sick) were released in exchange for the release of around 10 people. It will be released in stages over the course of a week. 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.
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withdrawal of troops: Israel begins a phased withdrawal of troops, leaving part of the Philadelphia Corridor, which runs along the Gaza-Egypt border, in place.
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Movement within Gaza: Unarmed residents are allowed to return to northern Gaza, and the Rafah border between Egypt and Gaza begins to reopen in stages.
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assistance: Israelis will also begin admitting more desperately needed humanitarian aid to Gaza. The Associated Press reported that this could amount to about 600 trucks per day. In early January, only about 50 aid trucks entered Gaza each day. Mr Unruwa said on Sunday..
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second stage: On the 16th day of the first phase, if everything goes according to plan, negotiations will begin in the second phase, and more hostages, including male soldiers and young civilian men, will be released, as well as the bodies of the victims. It will be made public. He died in custody in exchange for further Israeli concessions. The draft proposal suggests it could include a “complete withdrawal” of the IDF from Gaza.
You can read more about Archie Brand and Julian Borger's conversation here. What would a ceasefire in Gaza look like?
IDF claims to have attacked more than 50 'terrorist targets', reports Israeli attack on Gaza kills 24 Palestinians
In an operational update on its official Telegram channel, the Israeli military claimed yesterday that it had “attacked more than 50 terrorist targets across the country.” Gaza StripIt includes terrorist camps, weapons storage facilities, underground infrastructure, anti-tank firing positions, and Hamas military facilities. ”
Al Jazeera reported on Wednesday morning that the death toll from overnight Israeli attacks in Gaza had reached 24 people, including two who were recently reported dead. Khirbet al-Adas Area north of the city Rapha”
We mourn the loved ones who died in the Israeli military attack on the Nuseyrat refugee camp on January 15th. Photo: Anadolu/Getty Images
Lebanon's state news agency reported that Israeli forces bombed houses and bulldozed roads in several parts of the country overnight. south lebanonAita al-Shaab, Hanin, and Maroun al-Ras.
Overnight, the Israeli military reported that a military vehicle hit an explosive device, injuring three soldiers. Kabatiya in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
Ceasefire and hostage release agreement 'on the brink' as hopes rise for agreement
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said ceasefire talks in Gaza were on the “brink” as both sides were reportedly close to reaching an agreement. Special envoys representing President Biden and the incoming Trump administration met with delegations from Israel, Egypt and Qatar on Tuesday in what was dubbed the “final round” of talks.
Blinken indicated that Israel had agreed to the deal and that mediators were now awaiting a response from Hamas. “We’re closer than ever,” he said. “But now we are sitting here waiting for final word from Hamas about our acceptance. Until we hear that word, we will be on the brink.”
The Associated Press reported Tuesday evening that Hamas had accepted a draft agreement on a ceasefire and hostage release, citing two unnamed sources involved in the talks. This information has not been officially confirmed by the group, and Israeli officials told the news agency that details of the agreement were still being finalized.
The deal includes the initial release of 33 Israeli hostages and up to 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including children, women, the elderly and the sick, as well as a continuing first phase, according to reports from Israeli media and the Qatari capital. The plan includes a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces in 60 days.
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Hamas earlier said talks had reached the final stage and hoped the talks would lead to an agreement. An Israeli official said negotiations had reached a key stage but details needed to be worked out: “We are getting closer, but we are not there yet.” The Islamic Jihad militant group said it would send a senior delegation that would arrive in Doha on Tuesday night to take part in final arrangements for a ceasefire agreement.
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Despite more than eight hours of talks in Qatar, no deal was still in place by Tuesday night. A senior Hamas official told Reuters the group was awaiting a document from Israel detailing the geographic areas covered by the ceasefire. A Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson said early Tuesday that discussions were underway on final details after documents were presented to both sides.
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Hopes were rising across Gaza that the war that has left more than 46,000 people dead, millions displaced and devastated the territory, according to the Hamas-led Health Ministry, is finally coming to an end. Residents of conflict-affected areas expressed mixed emotions, including hope and anxiety for the future, as well as pain and sadness over the past 15 months. Optimism about the negotiations is tempered by past experience in which early apparent breakthroughs ultimately failed in the face of opposition from the Israeli prime minister's coalition government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Or interference by Hamas in Gaza.
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Fighting in Gaza has continued in recent days despite reports that a ceasefire is imminent. At least 17 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli airstrikes on homes in the Gaza Strip, health officials announced Tuesday. At least 18 people have been killed in previous attacks in Gaza, including two women and four children, and one pregnant woman and her infant also died, local health authorities said.
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Blinken outlined his vision for the post-war process in a speech to the Atlantic Council. Under it, Israel would accept unified leadership for Gaza and the West Bank under a reformed Palestinian Authority. Israel has so far rejected these conditions. He also spoke of significant engagement from the international community and Arab states, including the possibility of deploying troops to stabilize security and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid. Blinken's speech was interrupted multiple times by demonstrators.
