Egg prices are already high and could get even worse.
The average price for 12 large Grade A eggs during December was $4.15, up from $2.51 in December 2023, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
There are two factors contributing to the price increase. Avian influenza outbreaks and state laws regarding cage-free eggs.
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Patrick Penfield, a professor at Syracuse University School of Business and a supply chain expert, told Nexstar Media that egg prices could rise as much as 20% by the end of the year.
This means the average price for 12 large eggs could be close to $5 by the end of 2025, the highest average price for 12 eggs ever.
Egg prices are expected to rise in the coming months due to the bird flu outbreak. (St. Petersburg)
The last high egg price was in January 2023, when the average price for 12 large eggs was $4.82. But by August 2023, the average price had dropped to $2.04.
Penfield predicted egg prices could surpass that record as early as February.
The current avian influenza outbreak, technically known as “highly pathogenic avian influenza” (HPAI), has killed a record number of laying hens, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced in a recent report. .
In the last quarter of 2024, more than 20 million layer hens died.
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“Unlike previous years, significant losses occurred in 2024 across all major production systems, including conventional caged, cage-free, and certified organic types,” the USDA said.
When avian influenza is detected, farms must culle all birds in the flock. This had a devastating effect on the egg industry, as it takes about five months for chickens to reach maturity.
Chickens begin laying eggs when they are around 5 months old. (Reuters/Mike Blake)
“Once a chicken is five months old, it can lay about one egg a day,” Penfield says.
There is currently no vaccine or treatment for bird flu, he said. The only defense is to “practice biosecurity,” keeping chickens away from wild birds and humans, covering enclosures, and “reducing large puddles and standing water.”
Mr Penfield said he hoped the chickens would develop “some kind of natural immunity” to the spread of infection, but warned Nexstar that this could take years.
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“We haven't seen it yet, and it will take years for that to happen,” Penfield told Nexstar. “We also don't know whether this immunity will protect chickens if the avian influenza virus mutates, even if it does.”
Separate from bird flu, some states have laws requiring all eggs sold to be “cage-free,” meaning the birds have not been raised in cages. These are typically more expensive than traditional eggs, even in the absence of bird flu outbreaks.
If chickens test positive for avian influenza, the entire flock must be culled. (St. Petersburg)
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Egg expert Lisa Steele told FOX News Digital that pasture-raised chickens produce the “gold standard” for eggs, but these chickens are at higher risk of disease.
The University of Minnesota's avian influenza website states, “Poultry can contract HPAI from infected waterfowl (ducks and geese) and seagulls, which can frequent farm wetlands. “Poultry that are kept in captivity or have access to the outdoors are at higher risk for HPAI.”
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The University of Minnesota says, “Infected poultry can spread disease to new flocks through contact with birds, people, manure, and equipment. The HPAI virus can spread the disease to new flocks, especially under conditions of high humidity and low temperatures. “It can persist in bird excrement for several months.”
