In this year's NFL playoffs, there were four teams, three games, two rounds, and one champion. kansas city chiefs, buffalo bills, philadelphia eagles and commander of washington We arrived in the conference championship round with a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Before the season, it wouldn't have been a surprise for the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles to make it this far, but the Commander came out of nowhere.
college football playoffs are over ohio The Buckeyes took home the trophy after an impressive four-game run, and the NFL playoffs now have a stage to themselves. Which team will continue their playoff run with a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season?
The AFC Championship Game could see Kansas City punch their ticket en route to a three-peat, but Josh Allen is positioned to get the legend of Patrick Mahomes off his back. Washington was a surprise, but they have reason to be encouraged heading to the NFC Championship Game while Philadelphia has experience returning to the Super Bowl.
So far in the playoffs, FTN's DVOA has only hit .500 in predicting the outcome of each playoff round. In the departmental round, the analysis detroit lions defender of the ball. That wasn't the only reason the NFC's top seed was lost, but it played a big factor and can't be explained by the data.
DVOA is a failing metric Quality of play compared to league average While adjusting the strength of the opponent being played. DVOA is one of several catch-all analysis measures that can help you better understand the beautiful game of soccer.
Trying to predict the outcome of these games is difficult when the best are playing the best. fund bettorsland fan duel As such, they are looking for every tidbit of information that will help them make their predictions.
Interestingly, the two teams that earned the top seed and bye in the conference were not the top DVOA teams during the regular season. Neither of the DVOA's top teams made a conference championship game. For the second consecutive year, baltimore ravens It took the top spot with a DVOA of 41.4%, up from 45.5% last year. detroit lions Ranked 2nd overall with 34.8% kansas city chiefs It's down all the way at 8 at 14.7%.
To be clear, FTN's DVOA is not perfect, nor does it claim to predict the winner of any particular game. Too many variables that can't be codified, like weather, injuries, officiating, etc., can play a role in a one-game sample.
DVOA has only hit .500 so far in this year's NFL playoffs, but let's see what that says in the conference championship round.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
- Overall DVOA: Kansas City 8th vs Buffalo 4th
- Offensive DVOA: Kansas City 8th vs Buffalo 2nd
- Defensive DVOA: Kansas City 12th vs. Buffalo 11th
Edge: Invoice – Just like the analysis doesn't factor in injuries, it also can't factor in Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, and Mahomes. Did the Chiefs make it easy during the regular season (despite their gaudy record) or are the Bills much better than them? Despite what the data says, it's tough to bet on the two-time defending champion.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington manager
- Overall DVOA: Philadelphia 5th vs Washington 10th
- Offensive DVOA: Philadelphia 13th vs Washington 6th
- Defensive DVOA: Philadelphia 1st vs Washington 23rd
Edge: Eagles – Unlike the AFC, the NFC has teams with more experience ranking higher in the data. Philadelphia hasn't been a well-oiled machine this year, but they're still playing well, especially on defense. At some point, Jaden Daniels' lack of experience could be a problem, but not until now. With what feels like a mismatch, Washington has another opportunity to prove their doubters (and analysis) wrong.
FTN's DVOA was far from perfect to start the NFL playoffs, but the data helps you make betting decisions, discuss the playoffs with your colleagues, make daily fantasy decisions, and make a difference. provides information on. This weekend, data suggests the Bills will face the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX.
We're excited to take a look at the games being played on the field and see if DVOA can do a better job than predicting games last week.
