The long-awaited ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has entered into force, marking the beginning of the first wave of ceasefires. hostages were released And humanitarian supplies needed to relieve suffering and hunger should be moved to Gaza. However, the ceasefire is only the beginning of the road to lasting peace between Israel and its Palestinian neighbors.
Israel's war purpose is to eliminate Hamas as a terrorist force whose goal is to destroy it, and in fact, lasting peace is impossible if a force dedicated to eradicating the other side remains in power. It is. Hamas, which started the conflict on October 7th with an extremely brutal surprise attack on Israeli civilians, cannot be part of the postwar governance structure.
Prolonging Israel's occupation of Gaza will also not lead to lasting peace. It will only inspire a new generation of terrorists and extremists among Gaza's beleaguered population.
Israel and the Palestinians themselves, with the support of most of the international community (but without the deep-seated spoilers of Iran and Russia), can begin on the path to lasting peace. It requires leadership from Palestinians and Israelis. Palestinians are firmly committed to breaking with the past and living in peace and security with Israel, and Israelis accept and support such Palestinian commitments and ultimately support a sovereign Palestinian state. I will be participating.
What would be the steps on such a path? It starts with the security of Israelis living near Gaza, and indeed throughout the country, and the Gaza population, which is under shelling and martial law.
A multinational coalition authority should be responsible for Gaza, as was done after the Balkan wars, consisting of strong military and police forces from European and Arab countries and supported by US backers. Security forces will assist. Multinational security forces can root out remaining terrorist remnants, secure the flow of humanitarian aid, and begin deradicalization efforts. Palestinian police and militias in the West Bank can operate under its command.
But security forces alone will not lead to lasting peace. Palestinians committed to peace must have the foresight to understand the governance responsibilities and prosperity that come with it.
Coalition authorities could support initial local governance initiatives and, in the medium term, the constitution-making process for a Palestinian state. Elections will then be held among candidates committed to nonviolence, who will (with international support) choose a governing body that will negotiate the details of the final status with Israel.
But governance efforts alone do not guarantee lasting peace either. For its economic and political survival, Palestine, comprising Gaza and the West Bank, must undergo major and rapid economic reforms and international will need support. This could offer valuable hope to both Palestinians and Israelis that this time will be different.
Comparing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict of the past 75 years with historical precedents of other difficult conflicts that have been resolved peacefully (such as Northern Ireland, Bosnia, and East Timor) offers lessons and a way forward. . Our research finds that there is a path to lasting peace for Israelis and Palestinians, but it requires leadership from within and support from without.
The ceasefire is a good start, but it is only the beginning.
Anbu. (Retired) Charles P. Reese is a non-resident senior fellow at Rand, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization. Daniel Egel is a Randland economist, director of Rand's Economic and Security Initiatives, RAND portfolio manager for the State Department, and professor of policy analysis at the Pardy Randland Graduate School.
