President Trump's freeze on US aid to Ukraine threatens to create serious problems for Kiev in the war with Russia, making the country more vulnerable to air attacks on population centers and key infrastructure.
Experts predict that a pause can be felt within a few weeks, depending on the scope.
“This is a bad thing in terms of the immediate battlefield effect,” said George Barros, an expert on the Ukrainian-Russian conflict for the War Institute.
Baros said that extending into the summer when ammunition is likely to decrease will have a “significant effect” that will make freezing more clear. But the biggest gap is felt when Ukrainians run low over US-made patriot interceptors and other air defenses that could occur within weeks.
“There is a certain niche system and capabilities that the US offers to Ukraine, and Ukrainians don't have similarities, nor does Europeans, especially air defense interceptors,” he said.
After the retirement of Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Think Tank Foundation's Democracy Defense Foundation, Mark Montgomery said European alternatives to US air defense ammunition, such as patriot interceptors and advanced medium-range airborne missiles, will be used to protect against incoming Kremlin drone and missile attacks in cities. There is also no easy alternative to long-range strike weapons such as the Himars and ATACM that Ukrainian forces used to attack targets across Russian borders.
“Their critical infrastructure is being driven by cruises and ballistic missiles,” Montgomery said. “Without these weapon systems, more Russian things will hit and more infrastructure will be damaged. Without long-range strikes, Russia will be able to reduce risk and get quick contact with the enemy. [freeze] It will make the situation worse. ”
“We're forcing Ukraine to make a choice. Do they protect the power plants,” said Jennifer Kabana, senior fellow at Defense Priorities and director of military analysis.
Trump on Monday directed that all military aid to Ukraine be “suspended” following a controversial oval office meeting with Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky last week. Trump has pressured Kiev to sign important mineral trades to repay US support and agree to key concessions towards a peace deal with Russia.
“The president has made it clear that he is focused on peace, a White House official said in a statement. “We are suspending and reviewing our assistance to ensure that it contributes to the solution.”
Senate Republicans, who are generally Hawkish in Ukraine, defended Trump's move as a negotiation tactic on Tuesday, predicting it would not last long.
However, the news still fills the despair in Ukraine, with parliament member Oleksiy Goncharenko telling Sky News that “thousands of people will die” due to Trump's “devastating” choice.
“The mood in Ukraine is a betrayal. The mood is a hopeless mood,” Baros said. “It's a very poor incentive to say, 'Congratulations, you haven't gotten any more weapons' and actually try to increase the number of recruits. ”
Zelensky said on Tuesday that Ukraine would “be ready to come to the negotiation table as soon as possible,” signing a mineral contract and bringing the peace contract closer.
“None of us wants an endless war,” Zelensky said in a statement that he did not directly comment on the suspension of aid. “No one wants peace as much as the Ukrainians. My team and I are ready to work under President Trump's strong leadership and we can achieve peace.”
It is unclear whether the fatal aid assigned to Ukraine will be affected by the freeze, given the lack of official statements from the regime about how far the suspension would be extended and what would be touched.
Trump has been appointed with a drawdown agency of nearly $4 billion for Ukraine, available from previously approved parliamentary funding. He then managed to move on to a scrap deal Ukraine signed with a US defense company. The aim is to ensure a stable flow of newly produced weapons within the country for at least the next few years.
Trump was also able to withhold training Ukrainians by maintaining weapons, providing spare parts, or allowing European allies to transfer critical materials such as F-16 fighter parts. Ukraine is also partnering with the US for intelligence and relies on Elon Musk's Starlink Satellite Network for communication and internet connection.
Freezes could not come at a better time for Russia. This has been the military tempo for the past six months that has rapidly burned troops and ammunition, allowing Ukrainians to become increasingly involved in the country's southeastern counterattack.
These trends will have to face a very difficult set of decisions on how to fund next year's war, experts say it will be an ideal time to hold Russia in for strong concessions.
However, with the suspension of US aid, experts said they would not be surprised if Russians began to step up their air campaigns to eliminate the remaining air defense interceptors that Ukrainians have.
“Depending on the strength of the air campaign, we may run out of interceptors within days, if not weeks,” Baros said of Ukraine. When that happens, Moscow “can really release his anger.”
This has lit the spotlight on Europe, which has been gathering to support Ukraine these days, with leaders meeting over the weekend charting the path to advance without the US, but their ability to close the gap is limited by a variety of factors, including domestic politics.
Branislav Slanchev, a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, said despite supportive rhetoric coming from Europe, he struggles to sell his citizens to defence spending with a massive boost if major sacrifices such as reducing social safety nets are required.
“I don't know if Europeans can fill up quickly enough even if they have political will. Now they say all the right things, but their political reality in Europe is very difficult,” he said.
Ukraine could potentially maintain current levels of resistance for three to six months, Slanchev said, but if Trump sticks to the freeze, he would ultimately have to make a painful battlefield decision.
“Essentially, they start to lose territory because they have to retreat into a more defensive position in nature. They need to rearrange how they do this, and it's going to be much more difficult for them,” he said.
Trump has proven willing to rapidly change his diplomatic position as negotiations take place, and Slanchev said aid halt may be an attempt to see how far he can push Ukraine towards a Russian negotiation position.
“This is basically a typical Trump move to essentially enforce Ukraine… we'll bring it to the Russians the absolute maximum they'll be allowed to, and see if it works,” he said. “My belief is that it doesn't work, and then all bets are off.”
Colin Meyn contributed.
