Just a few months after the US I dropped a nuclear bomb [In1945HiroshimaandNagasakibegantoseektoabolishthesehorriblenewweapons[1945年に広島と長崎で、これらの恐ろしい新しい武器を廃止しようとし始めました。
1946, US Government Proposed decommissioning All of that atomic bombs manage the relevant technologies internationally to internationally manage whether other states do the same. (The Soviets refused.) A few years later, President Dwight Eisenhower went to the United Nations and delivered his famous him. “Atoms for Peace” Speechpleads other countries not to go down the nuclear road.
To strengthen its lawsuit, the US offered deals to Cold War allies. It uses that Arsenal to stop any shared enemies. To sweeten the bargain, the US offered to help a friendly nation develop a private nuclear energy program.
This arrangement was made in 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Under that agreement, countries already possessing nuclear weapons – the US, the US, the USSR, the UK, France, China – have come to keep them, but all other signatories have pledged to abandon their pursuit.
This US-led system to prevent proliferation worked very well. In the last 60 years, only four countries (Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea) have developed full-scale nuclear weapons, while several others (particularly Iran) are approaching. More importantly, 80 years after the US attacked Japan, no other country used nuclear weapons in the war.
But that incredible record can quickly break and all progress can be lost.
The US suspends aid to Ukraine, Threatening to abandon NATO Unless other members raise their defensive spending to 5% of GDP (currently at US level, 3.5%), and return the pledge to protect other allies, countries all over the world suddenly rush to come up with alternatives. It may be only a matter of time before some of them decide to pursue the ultimate defense.
Signs of this shift have already appeared. Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron declare“I want to believe that the US will stay on our side, but if it is no longer then we need to be ready” – offered to extend the French nuclear umbrella to our neighbors. Macron's desire to discourage other European countries from becoming nuclear is commendable, but he is unlikely to succeed.
For one thing, Paris has it I proposed this beforein 2020, it didn't go anywhere. Another more fundamental problem is that recent developments underscore the risk of relying on other countries, whether in the US. France, for its own safety.
So, after all, that's what Ukraine did in 1994. Kyiv in exchange for security guarantees from Washington, London and Moscow He gave up on the nuclear inherited from the Soviet Union. We all know how it turned out – following one invasion in 2014 and another in 2022, Russia is currently in control 18% of Ukraine's territoryand Washington just has Support for suspended military and intelligence news To Ukraine.
Imagine seeing this from Japan or South Korea, which has an offensive, nuclear-armed neighbour and means it is itself a “nuclear energy threshold.” Or, Eastern Europe, who pretends to be another country with a domestic nuclear program that is not very wise, but is unlucky to live in a very dangerous area. Why don't you decide that now is the time to start making your own bombs right away?
Certainly, it's exactly Polish President Donald Task proposed He is giving a speech to his Congress on Friday.
In most countries, calculations are not simple. Nuclear weapons are extremely dangerous and very unpopular. There is a powerful taboo in getting them, not to mention pondering their use. Developing them can cause international pressure, sanctions and expulsion. Some countries like Germany have the ability to quickly build bombs, but perhaps never For historical reasons. and Some scholars ask questions Whether nuclear weapons are even effective in protecting the states that own them.
It is true that in some cases (Israel and Pakistan) nuclear weapons do not discourage the enemy from attacking or even invading. However, it is also true that a nuclear-armed government has never been overthrown into an outsider. This is why many countries around the world continue to view these weapons as the ultimate deterrence and security guarantee.
Will the outbreak of a new nuclear arms race be stopped in the coming months? The best hope is for the US to quickly overturn the course and renew its defense guarantees for allies around the world. President Trump should clearly reaffirm Washington's commitment NATO article v (This requires that all members treat attacks on one person as an attack on everything) and attacks on non-nat American allies like Japan and South Korea. He will also need to resume robust military and intelligence reporting support soon.
But even these moves may not be, but they may not be enough to prevent the world from becoming the core. After all, the United States has now broken such promises at least once. Can I rely on keeping them next time?
Jonathan Tipperman is Editor-in-Chief of Catalyst and Senior Research Fellow at the George W. Bush Institute. He is a former editor-in-chief of foreign policy, a former managing editor of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the author of “.Fix: How countries can take advantage of crisis to solve the world's worst problems. ”
