Texas Republicans are preparing for the explosive Senate primary next year with the latest chapter in the ongoing civil war that split the party.
GOP members competed quickly to support their respective candidates this week after Attorney General Ken Paxton, an ally of Texas Governor Greg Abbott, launched a major challenge against Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).
The primary is likely to compete for more established-minded conservatives against Republicans like Paxton, who coincides with President Trump's Magazine Wing, and is already swirling about what Trump will do.
“Donald Trump loves Ken Paxton,” said Rep. Troy Nairs (R-Texas), who publicly supported Paxton on Wednesday.
“That's very important to anyone who gets that support,” he said.
Paxton also recorded approvals from Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) on Thursday.
When asked about his thoughts on the Naires in support of Paxton on Wednesday, Cornyn shrugged and said, “That's not important.”
And Cornyn secured the support of many Senate colleagues, including majority John Toon (RN.D.) and National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) Chairman Tim Scott (Rs.C.). Sheehy (R-Mont.) and Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.).
Cornyn also has the support of the Senate Leadership Fund, a large dollar funding group.
In his support, Scott called Cornyn a “leader” for Trump's agenda and for the Texans.
“He's a proven fighter, a man of faith, and an essential part of the Republican Senate majority,” Scott said.
A fellow Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) from Cornyn, is particularly separated from the conflict, telling reporters that the two men “are both my friends.”
Some Republicans are paying attention to the role played by Republican company Axiom Strategies in their primary. Paxton hired the company, but Ricketts, who supported Cornyn, is also working with it. The company also has a long history of working with Cruz.
“I think both sides are preparing for the Battle Royale,” said Texas Republican strategist Brendan Stein Hauser.
“We're dealing with two candidates who have strong and deep ties with the Texas Republican Party.”
One Texas Republican operative described dynamic as “a classic case of DC vs. Texas.”
“John Cornyn is Republican Chamber of Commerce Mitt Romney, and that's no longer where the party is,” the operative said.
Polls suggest that there may be a potential vulnerability for Cornyn among the state's grassroots.
According to a poll tracked at Austin's Texas Political Project, his hometown is located at around 49% among Republican voters. Approximately 21% of survey respondents view him at a disadvantage, while 30% have no opinion about him. The same survey showed Paxton with 62% favors among Republicans, with 11% of respondents disapproving and 28% undecided.
Trump pollster Fabrizio, Lee & Associates It is reportedly Paxton leads Cornyn with fictional head to head 25 points.
Still, Cornyn, who has held his seat since 2002, will be a difficult candidate to beat. Cornyn has proven to be a strong fundraiser that has only tracked former Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as the top Senate fundraiser over the past 15 years. Last year, he raised nearly $33 million to support Republican candidates in the 2024 cycle, raising funding for his career to a total of $415 million.
According to sources familiar with his political operations, Cornyn raised nearly $2.5 million in the first quarter of 2025, bringing cash to a total of $5.7 million.
“It's where the money and the base is, and I don't know if Senator Cornyn can get out of that mess,” the Republican strategist said.
Paxton, the rising far-right ion figure of the Texas GOP, has long traded barbs for Cornyn, the party's old security guard representative. After months of speculation, Paxton began his bid this week by knocking on Kornin's 30-year-old upper chamber knock.
“There's no doubt about the time for Texas change,” Paxton said, announcing the campaign on Fox News' Ingraham Angle, “it's when there's another great senator who actually stands up and fights for Republican values, fights for the values of the people of Texas and supports Trump.”
Cornyn returned swinging and putting his major rival into legal battles in the state.
“Obviously, Paxton has a checker from the past,” Cornyn told reporters. “He's a scammer and a scam, and I think Texans know that. This is something that will sue in the course of this campaign.”
Paxton was charged in 2015 with securities fraud claims. Reach the transaction In 2024, he paid compensation and withdraws the claim. In 2023, he was later fired up to the state capitol on more than 12 counts. Appeal Before the state senator acquitted him, he misused his office to benefit real estate developers. January, Texas Supreme Court He filed a lawsuit From the state bar against Paxton, Texas, in relation to efforts to challenge the 2020 election results.
The corruption allegations also spurred federal investigations, but the Associated Press reported that the Justice Department has decided to issue charges towards the end of the Biden administration. The DOJ Public Integrity Section took over the investigation in 2023. This was a memo from Paxton's allies under the Biden administration.
Supporters of the Attorney General stress that the charges have since been dropped and have been in the past.
The drama surrounding Paxton came against the backdrop of ideological tensions among the state's Republicans. These tensions boiled in a tense battle for the Texas House Speaker last year. The Attorney General threatened to support the primary against Republicans who supported Burrows, despite the fact that the far-right candidate ultimately lost.
Meanwhile, Abbott suggested support for candidates along Paxton, further highlighting the split at the top of the Republican Texas party.
Cornyn has seen several warning signs among the state's conservative grassroots. In 2022, he helped lead a bipartisan gun safety bill through Congress following the Uvalde School shooting at Rob Elementary School. Cornyn was booed that year at the Texas GOP Convention, and Colin County GOP voted to denounce him.
“He got really deep and intense in the way that the second amendment supporter was really hit,” said the unknown GOP strategist. “And part of that is where the party bases and voters are.”
Cornyn and the Texas GOP, along with party chair Abraham George, appeared to have moved ever since. I praise Cornyn This month we will be the “alliance” of the party.
Some on the Democrats seem optimistic that a bid from Paxton could help rob a long-standing incumbent.
“Rip Cornyn,” said the Texas Democrat. x's post. “Ken Paxton is one of the least popular politicians in Texas. He's ready.”
Texas Blue Action executive director Lana Hansen has been talking about Colin Allred, who competed for Cruz's seat last fall, “will become a man.”
Dallas Morning News It has been reported Last month, he was “seriously considering” his 2026 bid.
However, Cornin and Cruz are “very different individuals,” Hansen said, adding that Cornin is “hard to beat.”
Both Texas Senate seats were red since the mid-90s, with Allred finally falling behind Cruz as Democrats. Low performance At the top of the ticket.
“Race with Cornin is very different from racing with Ted Cruz in Texas, so it's very difficult to say what it looks like.”
“I think the elephant in the room is clearly Donald Trump. Whether he decides to get involved in any way is a big question, and that may change the dynamics of the race and he may really decide to do that in the process,” Steinhauser said.
Thune told CNN he told Trump about his potential to support Cornyn, but some Republicans are skeptical of the impact that Trump has had.
“If he approved Paxton, that would have been over,” the unknown GOP strategist said. “If he approves Cornin, I don't know if it's enough to get Cornin to the finish line.”
Paxton's entry essentially becomes “a very fierce battle, a highly competitive race” the following year.
“Winners of that primary should be fine in the general election, but I think it will be one of the biggest fights in the Texas Republican party politics for a while.”
