- Gold prices gain positive traction and leave Thursday's two-week low set.
- The modest USD downtick provides support for the Xau/USD pair ahead of the US NFP report.
- Optimism about the possibility of US-China trade negotiations may curb valuable metals.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) touch on new daily highs in the early days of Friday's European session, but there are no bullish convictions in the daytime move-up, below the $3,260-3,265 support breakpoint. The US dollar (USD) struggles to leverage capital upwards three days ago to multi-week highs, drifting low drift amid the Federal Reserve's outlook for more aggressive policy easing. Apart from this, some relocation transactions will serve as tailwinds for non-two yellow metals prior to the release of the US Non-Agricultural Payroll (NFP) report.
Meanwhile, signs that will ease trade tensions between the US and China (the world's largest economy), as well as hopes for tariff trading between the US and its trading partners, support a positive risk tone. This continues to support a positive risk tone in general and can prevent traders from making fresh bullish bets on safe haven gold prices. So it's wise to wait for a strong follow-through purchase before you make sure the recent $3,500 psychological mark on the Xau/USD pair, or the pullback from the highest ever high, is running that course.
Daily Digest Market Mover: Gold Price Bulls holds daytime management ahead of US NFPs, amid a slight USD weakness
- China's Commerce Department said Friday that the US has recently actively communicated its message to engage in consultations on tariff issues through related channels, with the country being evaluated on proposals to launch negotiations. This adds to optimism over the possibility of easing the tariff war of The-for-for-Tat between the two biggest economies of the world.
- Additionally, hopes for a tariff trade between the US and its trading partners raised the US dollar to a three-week high, dragging Friday prices into the $3,200 neighborhood on Thursday. However, the USD Bulls will be cautious in their bets to ease more aggressive policies by the Federal Reserve and ease more aggressive policies ahead of the US non-farm salary report.
- Traders have stepped up their bets that the US Central Bank will achieve a four-quarter rate cut by the end of the year, after data released this week showed the US economy was unexpectedly signed for the first time since 2022.
- In addition to this, the US ADP report on private sector employment suggests that the US labor market is chilling. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that the initial unemployment claims for the week ended April 26 increased from 223,000 to 241,000.
- Meanwhile, US ISM manufacturing PMI remained firmly in the contraction area for the second consecutive month, although it was less than expected, from 49.0 in April to 48.7. Traders are looking forward to the release of details of US monthly employment for new clues on the Fed's policy outlook.
- The commonly known US Non-Agricultural Payroll (NFP) report is expected to show that in April the economy was significantly lower than 228K in the previous month, adding 130,000 new jobs. However, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.2%, average hourly revenue could have risen by 0.3%.
Gold prices should exceed $3,260-3,265 to support the outlook for more viewing moves
From a technical standpoint, the overnight breakdown below the horizontal support of $3,265-$3,260 and the 50% retracement level of travel from near the mid-$2,900 were considered new triggers for bearish traders. However, the daily oscillator chart – They have lost their aggressive traction, but have yet to confirm their negative outlook. This will encourage some short movements and act as a tailwind for gold prices.
That said, the support breakpoints mentioned above could promise regions between $3,260 and $3,265. The latter must act as an important and crucial thing. This could raise the gold price to a supply zone of between $3,348-$3,350 if cleared. Some follow-through purchases suggest that a revised slide from the highest ever peak runs the course and begins moving from $3,367 to the $3,368 area, heading towards the $3,400 mark.
On the other side, it appears to protect the immediate downsides beyond the $3,202-$3,201 area at a retracement level of around $3,229-$3,228 over a low night swing range. A compelling break below the latter reaffirms short-term negative bias, weakens gold prices and accelerates the downfall to the $3,200 round figure on the way to the $3,160 zone representing FIBO at 61.8%. level.
Today's US Dollar Price
The table below shows the rate of change in the US dollar (USD) against today's listed currencies. The US dollar was the strongest against the British pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.31% | -0.14% | -0.20% | -0.25% | -0.49% | -0.23% | -0.24% | |
| EUR | 0.31% | 0.18% | 0.13% | 0.06% | -0.17% | 0.10% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.14% | -0.18% | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.33% | -0.07% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.20% | -0.13% | 0.06% | -0.05% | -0.28% | -0.02% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | 0.25% | -0.06% | 0.10% | 0.05% | -0.25% | 0.04% | 0.01% | |
| aud | 0.49% | 0.17% | 0.33% | 0.28% | 0.25% | 0.27% | 0.26% | |
| NZD | 0.23% | -0.10% | 0.07% | 0.02% | -0.04% | -0.27% | -0.01% | |
| CHF | 0.24% | -0.09% | 0.08% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.26% | 0.01% |
The heatmap shows the rate of change of each other's major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, and the estimated currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select US dollars from the left column and move along the horizon to Japanese Yen, the rate of change shown in the box represents USD (base)/JPY (QUOTE).
