“There’s no doubt the government is watching,” remarked Ingrid Escobar, an activist lawyer critical of the Salvadoran authorities. Since President Nayib Bukele initiated an aggressive campaign against gangs, Escobar has been advocating for the tens of thousands detentions without due process. She shares the story of Geovanni Aguirre, a childhood friend and union member who worked for the San Salvador mayor’s office, noting he vanished into the prison system in 2022.
“The threat is real,” Escobar continued. “There are activists and union members in jail. Others have arrest orders. Yes, we are scared.”
This situation highlights a troubling aspect of what some call the “Bukele model,” which praises a populist leader’s tough-on-crime approach, yet simultaneously undermines civil society and democratic institutions while amassing nearly absolute power. Approval ratings reflect his popularity, though they tell only part of the story.
Many see Bukele, 43, as an authoritarian who has garnered admiration worldwide, including from people within and outside the Trump administration. “President Nayib Bukele saved El Salvador,” commented television host Tucker Carlson after interviewing him, claiming he might have a “blueprint to save the world.”
Despite this, independent reporting from El Salvador’s civil society warns of a potential dark turn under Bukele’s administration.
“Bukele still enjoys vast popularity, but it’s reminiscent of Nicaragua’s path, where public opinion turned against the regime,” said environmental advocate Pedro Cavezas. “And that ultimately leads to military rule.”
Concerns arose recently when the Trump administration deported over 200 migrants to a massive prison in El Salvador, indicating a growing influence from Bukele.
Many in El Salvador remember the despair during the reign of gangs like MS-13 and Barrio 18. “Violence was brutal, especially in poorer neighborhoods,” said Ampalo Marroquin, a professor. The drastic measures taken by Bukele, which include imprisoning around 85,000 individuals—many likely innocent—have led to a drop in gang control, resulting in fewer murders and a newfound sense of safety for some.
A taxi driver shared, “Before, every time you left home, you were risking robbery or even death. The president changed that.”
Currently, Bukele enjoys approval ratings hovering around 80%, but underlying fears persist. “We’re a flourishing and thriving society,” said Noah Bullock, of the human rights organization Cristosal. “Yet, there’s no doubt the government can act against anyone without consequence.”
A civil war veteran, who chose to remain anonymous, expressed relief over the decline of gangs, but added, “Now, the soldiers are a problem. I don’t feel secure. It’s like there are even more gangs out there.”
The only resistance to Bukele’s control comes from independent journalism and civil society, both increasingly under pressure.
Bukele frames both himself and his political opponents as enemies of the Salvadoran people, a message that reverberates through his media channels.
“Bukele is like an antenna,” Cavezas stated. “He orchestrates the message through ministries and state agencies, supported by a legion of online trolls.”
Simultaneously, he exerts pressure on civil society through heightened regulations and targeted actions against activists leading campaigns against mining in the country.
Many civil society leaders are well-known internationally, which only heightens anxiety for ordinary individuals witnessing these attacks. About 86% of organizations in El Salvador are now self-censoring to evade repercussions.
Journalists, too, face harassment and intimidation, with many detailing security forces demanding to see their credentials or detaining them during protests.
“It’s become routine for journalists to be threatened on the streets,” said Sergio Araus, president of the Association of Journalists in El Salvador.
Additionally, a freeze on U.S. aid has impacted numerous media outlets and civil organizations, which many see as a windfall for Bukele.
Despite total oppression, some journalists continue to probe corruption in the government and its dealings with gangs.
“I think Bukele realizes that overly aggressive attacks on journalists could have a global backlash. Whether he’s willing to take that risk is another matter,” Marroquin noted.
“If he crosses that line, there’s no going back,” he added.
During a recent Oval Office meeting, Bukele denied allegations about wrongful deportations while Trump, sitting beside him, praised his approach.
It remains uncertain how much Trump wants to emulate the “Bukele Model,” considering the lack of similar social crises in the U.S. and still-functional checks on presidential power.
“American democracy is more resilient, but we shouldn’t take that for granted,” said Juan Papie from Human Rights Watch. “Bukele dismantled Salvador’s democracy in just a few years, and rebuilding those institutions will be a monumental task.”
