President Donald Trump recently shocked many with his announcement about halting all bombing missions against Yemen’s Houthis, following a series of intense airstrikes. However, analysts caution that Iran-backed factions are likely to remain active despite this pause.
During a statement made from the Oval Office, Trump expressed his desire to avoid conflict, mentioning, “I just don’t want to fight…and we respect that. We’ll stop the bombing.” He didn’t specify the source of his information regarding the Houthis’ intentions, although he humorously stated it came from a “very good source.”
Shortly after his announcement, Badr Bin Hamad Al Busaidi from Oman indicated that recent discussions aimed at a ceasefire had been productive. Oman’s involvement, having previously mediated between the U.S. and Iran, has been crucial in facilitating communication between the conflicting parties.
The President remarked that both sides would refrain from targeting each other, which includes protecting American vessels navigating the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Straits, thereby ensuring free trade routes. Oman’s role in negotiating this ceasefire was emphasized, though concerns linger about the ongoing threats from various international actors aiding the Houthis.
Reports reveal that while Iran has backed the Houthis since at least 2014, enabling their military capabilities, other nations have also played significant roles. Tehran has been accused of supplying ballistic missiles, while Oman has allowed the Houthis to operate from their territory, further facilitating smuggling routes for armaments.
Jonathan Shangzer, a former U.S. Treasury analyst, criticized Oman’s involvement in negotiations, deeming it illogical to rely on intermediaries that support the very groups opposed to U.S. interests.
According to recent findings, the port of Hodeida has been pivotal for smuggling Iranian weaponry into Yemen. This week’s Israeli airstrikes targeting Houthi infrastructure have underscored the significance of this logistical hub, while it has been reported that financial institutions in Oman contribute to the Houthi economy.
“We need to take stronger measures to prevent cash flow across the Oman-Yemen border,” said an expert from the Foundation for Democracy. They stressed that international pressure should compel Oman to confront financial challenges that have gone unchecked for too long.
The report detailed various strategies to undermine the Houthis, reminiscent of past military actions by Saudi Arabia, recently echoed by the U.S. and Israel.
These proposed strategies include ongoing military operations similar to Israel’s recent strikes on Hodeida and Sana International Airport, which could severely impact the Houthi economy and intensify internal dissent. Yet, military action alone is not sufficient; the reports argue for a combination of economic, diplomatic, and soft power measures to effectively weaken the group.
Enhancing Houthi resilience during periods of inactivity raises concerns, particularly as they could regroup to confront adversaries like Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and Israel.
“While urging the Houthis to cease attacks on transportation routes is noteworthy, it’s essential this is part of a more extensive strategy,” a source mentioned. They warned that if a ceasefire becomes the central U.S. policy toward the Houthis, it could inadvertently empower a threatening faction to escalate activities further.
In conclusion, without a comprehensive response to the Houthi situation, the U.S. and its allies may find themselves grappling with a more potent and hostile group in the near future.
