Donald Trump is accustomed to charting his own course. That might change soon as he navigates challenges he’s created in the Middle East. The U.S. President has made bold promises heading into his three-day visit to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. But, as always, reality seems starkly different. U.S. regional policies appear reckless and inconsistent, showing a pressing need for reevaluation.
Gulf leaders hold the power to recalibrate the situation if they choose to leverage it. They are positioned as not just diplomatic partners but also as influential in security and financial support—more so than in Europe. Trump’s stance on Palestine is teetering on the edge of what some might call a catastrophe, reflecting a mix of bias and neglect. Without Arab cooperation, the U.S. and Israel risk remaining ensnared in destructive strategies.
Trump is well aware that he cannot overlook the perspectives of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his allies regarding Gaza, Syria, and Yemen. They oppose a potential war with Iran, which the U.S. and Israel have threatened. Aligning with these leaders is crucial for Trump’s trade and tariff disputes with China, not to mention their role in peace talks for Ukraine and Russia, where he aims to maintain low crude oil prices. There’s also an eagerness to negotiate substantial investments and arms sales in the region.
Nonetheless, there’s a cost for Gulf assistance. Trump’s aspirations to expand the so-called Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Saudi Arabia depend heavily on tangible steps toward a Palestinian state. Salman openly refers to the deaths of over 52,000 Palestinians since October 7 as genocide and is pressuring Trump to end Israeli blockades and restore ceasefires.
The complicated dynamics between the U.S. and Israel have escalated Trump’s anxiety, especially as he disregards Jerusalem in his travel plans—and the implications this has for Israeli hostages held by Hamas. While Netanyahu pushes for military collaboration against Iran, Trump shows an unexpected openness to dialogues with Tehran—a departure from earlier hardline stances. His shifts can often be traced back to effective lobbying from Gulf states.
Arab leaders, with Türkiye’s backing, want Trump to restrain Israeli military actions, particularly in Syria. All members of the Gulf Cooperation Council support the involvement of Syrian interim president Ahmed Alshara in a coalition government. Alshara is focused on rebuilding rather than fighting Israel, with generous offers for reconstruction aid from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. However, unlike the U.K. and EU, Trump has refused to ease sanctions against Assad’s regime, which hampers efforts for a fresh start in Syria and could invite more Iranian and Russian influence.
If Trump expects support from the Gulf for his broader agenda, he may need to offer something substantial in return, perhaps by reviving ties from the 2015 U.S.-European nuclear agreement with Iran—though he must tread carefully to avoid accusations of provoking war. This is a pivotal opportunity for him to prove his self-proclaimed status as the “President of Peace.”
A more enlightened U.S. stance on Gaza and Syria could also fulfill Trump’s broader objectives of lowering energy costs and encouraging Gulf investments in U.S. businesses, crucial for his political support back home. Maintaining low gas prices is vital for Trump, especially as rising costs can alienate voters. Recently, Salman mentioned a staggering $600 million investment agreement that could pave the way for more collaboration.
But is this significant incentive why Trump chose Saudi Arabia for his first stop after his inauguration? There’s also a strong military partnership on the table, with a potential $100 billion weapons deal already in the works. Furthermore, opportunities for the Trump family’s business ventures continue to arise, which raises questions of conflict of interest.
Among all these considerations, it’s disappointing to see Trump supporting an anti-democratic regime known for its human rights abuses. His visit symbolizes a troubling rehabilitation for Salman following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
The power and influence of Gulf states are undeniable in the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. Yet, the rise of unelected leaders poses challenges when addressing critical peace and security issues in the Middle East. One might wish Trump would visit Gaza to witness firsthand the devastation wrought by himself and his hardline allies—though that’s unlikely.
It’s no secret that Trump isn’t exactly known for his gentlemanly conduct, and it’s questionable whether he could ever be deemed a true statesman.
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