Russia and Ukraine might finally be heading towards peace talks again, something that hasn’t happened since the war began.
Here’s a brief overview of what transpired during their last negotiations in 2022, before everything fell apart.
Where Did the Talks Happen?
The first rounds of negotiations took place in Belarus on February 28, 2022, just days after Russia launched a large-scale invasion. Following that, they met via video and then in Istanbul on March 29. They exchanged multiple drafts until mid-April, but the discussions ultimately failed.
What Was On the Table?
– Draft documents from the New York Times indicated that Ukraine was willing to become a neutral, non-aligned nation, without nuclear weapons or foreign military presence. This would preclude NATO membership but could allow Ukraine to join the EU.
– In exchange, Ukraine sought security assurances from five permanent members of the UN Security Council, which included the UK, China, Russia, the US, and France.
– The drafts proposed that these guarantor states, including Russia, would respect Ukraine’s independence and avoid any threats or aggression toward it.
– Discussions about the status of Crimea were included; it had been annexed by Russia from Ukraine about 10-15 years ago.
What Were the Main Disagreements?
– There was contention about how to assist Ukraine if it faced an attack. One proposal suggested closing Ukrainian airspace and providing military support, but Russia insisted that any decisions required unanimous agreement among the guarantor states, giving it veto power.
– There were also sharp divisions regarding the size and capabilities of Ukraine’s military. For instance, Ukraine was open to increasing its forces to 250,000, with a maximum missile range of 280 km. Russia, however, wanted to restrict Ukraine’s military capabilities, asserting that it had only 85,000 personnel, with 342 tanks and a 40 km missile range.
– Moscow pushed for Ukrainian recognition of Russian as an official language and the end of what it described as the discrimination of Russian speakers in Ukraine.
– Russia also demanded the repeal of Ukrainian laws they claimed endorsed Nazism, something Ukraine vehemently denied as nonsense.
Why Did the Talks Fail?
By April 2022, Ukraine seemed to regain some momentum on the battlefield, having pushed back Russian forces from around Kyiv. They also presented evidence of alleged war crimes, which Russia denied but faced global condemnation for.
As Western nations ramped up military aid to Ukraine and imposed more sanctions on Russia, the latter’s demands became increasingly untenable for Ukraine. Historians and analysts noted that this shift in momentum played a crucial role in the breakdown of talks.
Is the 2022 Framework Still Relevant?
US Special Envoy Steve Witkov remarked in February that the Istanbul protocols could serve as a “guide post” for future negotiations.
A Kremlin spokesperson mentioned that the ongoing discussions should consider the framework established in 2022, given Russia’s current control over significant parts of Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Voldy Zelensky stated in December 2024 that there was no “Istanbul agreement” and that the focus was solely on responding to Russia’s actions without any binding agreements.
What’s Changed Since Then?
Initially, negotiations mostly centered around issues of sovereignty; however, Russia has since adopted a firmer approach, adding territorial demands. President Vladimir Putin claimed in June 2024 that Moscow must withdraw from four regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson—that Ukraine asserts are under partial Russian control.
Ukraine has consistently stated it will never accept Russia’s claim to Ukrainian territory. Yet, Zelensky acknowledged the challenges his forces face in reclaiming all lost territory and mentioned that it might only be achievable through diplomatic means.
